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GEO ICE - Benchmark Geological Records for the Response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to Near Future Temperature

GEO ICE - 南极西部冰盖对近期温度响应的基准地质记录

基本信息

批准号：
NE/W000172/1
负责人：
Tina Van De Flierdt
金额：
$ 82.85万
依托单位：
Imperial College London
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2022
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2022 至无数据
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FW000172%2F1
关键词：
GEO ICE Benchmark Geological Records

项目摘要

The Paris Agreement presents humanity with an ambitious and critical goal: to keep global warming well below 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels. All 197 countries have signed up, and 189 have formally approved it. But there is no doubt that these targets present a massive challenge, and a certain amount of environmental change is already inevitable. We know that sea level will rise 10s of centimetres over the next several decades, displacing many millions of people living in low lying coastal areas. But we don't yet know just how much more our seas will rise through the coming centuries. Will our efforts to curb emissions stop the collapse of Antarctica's ice shelves and loss of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet? Under which conditions does collapse occur? And which part of the ice sheet will react first? Computer models yield conflicting results on these questions, partly because they simulate the past (and our future) using different environmental conditions and model physics. To figure out which of these are right, we need to obtain observational data from the geological past to test the models. Our project will embark in a detective story to provide some long-searched for evidence. We will exploit two geological records to reconstruct West Antarctic Ice Sheet history under temperatures only slightly elevated above modern levels (i.e. late Pleistocene interglacials). The first of these records comes from a recent ship-based drilling campaign (International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 374) that recovered mud and sand from the Ross Sea, an area right next to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The second record will be retrieved from an ice shelf-based drilling rig that will recover the first extended record of sub-seafloor mud and sand from far beneath the Ross Ice Shelf, at a location where the West Antarctic ice sheet detaches from the seafloor and starts to float into the Ross Sea (Siple Coast drilling). For our first work package, we will analyse the chemical composition of mud, sand and organic particles to reconstruct critical environmental conditions. Firstly, the mud and sand will uncover where on the continent the pieces of rocks came from. Knowledge of the location of erosion can then tell us in turn whether the West Antarctic Ice Sheet melted during past times when temperatures were just a little bit warmer than today, or not. Secondly, the chemical composition of organic particles in the same samples will reveal prevailing ocean temperatures at the time of deposition. Thirdly, the presence/absence of certain types of marine algae will tell us whether floating ice was present or not. The combination of the three different sets of data will help us unravel where geographically ice melting started in West Antarctica.For our second work package, we will utilise our new data to test coupled ice sheet-climate models, which are also used to predict future sea level. Assessing how well these models perform in simulating the geological past is a key way of determining how accurate their projections of the future are. In detail we will test two such models, called PSUICE3D and BISICLES. We will analyse existing model simulations that led to collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet during past warm times, and perform new simulations using a more realistic environmental framework constrained by our new data. The comparison of predicted places of ice retreat and modelled places of ice retreat has never been realised before and will allow us to pinpoint which parts of Antarctica are most vulnerable to moderate levels of global warming, providing vital information towards mitigation and adaptation of sea level rise for settlements in coastal areas around the globe.

《巴黎协定》为人类提出了一个雄心勃勃的关键目标：将全球变暖控制在远低于工业化前水平2摄氏度的水平。所有197个国家都已签署，189个国家已正式批准。但毫无疑问，这些目标是一个巨大的挑战，一定程度的环境变化已经是不可避免的。我们知道，在接下来的几十年里，海平面将上升10厘米，使生活在低洼沿海地区的数百万人流离失所。但我们还不知道在接下来的几个世纪里，我们的海平面还会上升多少。我们遏制排放的努力能否阻止南极洲冰架的坍塌和西南极冰盖的消失？在什么情况下会发生崩塌？冰盖的哪一部分会最先做出反应？计算机模型在这些问题上产生了相互矛盾的结果，部分原因是它们使用不同的环境条件和模型物理来模拟过去(和我们的未来)。为了找出这些模型中的哪一个是正确的，我们需要从地质历史中获得观测数据来测试这些模型。我们的项目将以一个侦探故事为起点，提供一些长期寻找的证据。我们将利用两个地质记录来重建仅略高于现代水平的温度(即晚更新世间冰期)下的西南极冰盖历史。这些记录中的第一个来自最近的一次基于船舶的钻探活动(国际海洋发现计划探险374)，该活动从罗斯海发现了泥沙，罗斯海是紧邻西南极冰盖的区域。第二个记录将从一个基于冰架的钻井平台上获取，该钻井平台将在罗斯冰架下遥远的位置恢复第一个扩展的海底泥沙记录，该位置位于西南极冰盖从海底分离并开始漂浮到罗斯海(六海岸钻探)的位置。对于我们的第一个工作包，我们将分析泥浆、沙子和有机颗粒的化学成分，以重建关键的环境条件。首先，泥沙将揭示岩石碎片在大陆上的来源。对侵蚀位置的了解可以反过来告诉我们，西南极冰盖是在过去温度略高于今天的时候融化的，还是没有融化。其次，同一样品中有机颗粒的化学成分将揭示沉积时的主流海洋温度。第三，某些类型的海藻的存在/不存在将告诉我们是否存在漂浮的冰。这三组不同数据的组合将帮助我们解开南极西部冰川融化的地理起点。在我们的第二个工作包中，我们将利用我们的新数据来测试耦合的冰盖-气候模型，该模型也用于预测未来的海平面。评估这些模型在模拟地质过去方面的表现如何，是确定它们对未来预测的准确性的关键方法。具体来说，我们将测试两个这样的模型，分别称为PSUICE3D和BISICLES。我们将分析在过去温暖时期导致西南极冰盖崩塌的现有模型模拟，并使用受我们新数据约束的更现实的环境框架进行新的模拟。预测的冰川消退地点和模拟的冰川消退地点的比较以前从未实现过，这将使我们能够准确地确定南极洲哪些地区最容易受到温和全球变暖的影响，为全球沿海地区的定居点缓解和适应海平面上升提供重要信息。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（6）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to past and future climate change.

东南极冰盖对过去和未来气候变化的响应。

DOI：
10.1038/s41586-022-04946-0
发表时间：
2022
期刊：
Nature
影响因子：
64.8
作者：
Stokes CR
通讯作者：
Stokes CR

Sensitivity of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to +2°C (SWAIS 2C)

南极西部冰盖对 +2°C 的敏感性 (SWAIS 2C)

DOI：
10.5194/sd-30-101-2022
发表时间：
2022
期刊：
Scientific Drilling
影响因子：
1.2
作者：
Ogihara Masahiro;Genda Hidenori;Sekine Yasuhito;Patterson et al.
通讯作者：
Patterson et al.

Geological insights from the newly discovered granite of Sif Island between Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers

思韦茨冰川和松岛冰川之间新发现的锡夫岛花岗岩的地质见解

DOI：
10.1017/s0954102023000287
发表时间：
2024
期刊：
Antarctic Science
影响因子：
1.6
作者：
Marschalek, James W.;Thomson, Stuart N.;Hillenbrand, Claus-Dieter;Vermeesch, Pieter;Siddoway, Christine;Carter, Andrew;Nichols, Keir;Rood, Dylan H.;Venturelli, Ryan A.;Hammond, Samantha J.
通讯作者：
Hammond, Samantha J.

Quantitative Sub-Ice and Marine T racing of A ntarctic S ediment P rovenance (TASP v0.1)

南极沉积物来源的定量冰下和海洋追踪 (TASP v0.1)