ASSURE: Across-Scale processeS in URban Environments

确保：城市环境中的跨规模流程

• 批准号: NE/W002922/1
• 负责人: Dudley Shallcross
• 金额: $ 52.08万
• 依托单位: University of Bristol
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2021 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FW002922%2F1
• 关键词: ASSURE; Across; Scale; processeS; URban

Local and global consequences of climate change (enhanced urban heat islands, worsening environmental conditions) affect most of the world's urban population, but only recently have cities been represented, albeit crudely, in weather forecast models. To manage and develop sustainable, resilient and healthy cities requires improved forecasting and observations that cross neighbourhood-influenced scales which the next generation weather forecast models need to resolve. ASSURE addresses the critical issue of which processes need to be parameterised, and which resolved, to capture urban heterogeneity in space and time. We will advance understanding to develop new approaches and parameterisations for larger-scale urban meteorological and dispersion models by combining the results of field observations, high-resolution numerical simulations and wind tunnel experiments. Field work and modelling will focus on Bristol, as its physical geography provides suitably high levels of complexity and allows whole-city approaches. With mid-sized cities being large sources of greenhouse gases, and where large numbers of people live, it is critical agencies can provide predictions of weather and climate variability across cities of this scale as they need this information to manage and provide their services. ASSURE will include idealised simulations and theoretical analyses to ensure generic applicability.The ASSURE objectives are:-To understand how sources of urban heterogeneity (physical setting, layout of buildings and neighbourhoods, human activities) combine to influence the urban atmosphere in space and time. - To quantify effects of urban heterogeneity at different scales (street to neighbourhood, to city and beyond) on flow, temperature, moisture and air quality controlling processes and to determine how these processes interact. - To develop a theoretical framework that captures key processes and feedbacks with reduced complexity to aid mesoscale and larger model parameterisations.- To inform the development priorities of current weather and climate models that have meso-scale capabilities and are used in decision-making processes (e.g. integrated urban services). The ASSURE high-fidelity simulations and carefully designed experiments will allow us to explore implications of urban heterogeneity in isolated and combined configurations; interpret and integrate field observations (e.g. 3D meteorological & city-scale tracer dispersion experiments); integrate different approaches to understand the magnitude, source, and geographical extent of uncertainties in process models at different scales; synthesize the new knowledge to conduct theoretical analyses; develop algorithms reflecting this analysis. Novel in ASSURE are simulations resolving street to city-scale features that are linked to mesoscale models; field observations capturing vertical and horizontal variations in the urban boundary- and canopy-layers, including novel multi-source gas tracer experiments; and wind tunnel simulations across atmospheric stabilities and model resolution. New insights will be gained on the role of variations in the building morphology (or form), local topography, and human activities (e.g. waste heat, and AQ emissions).ASSURE will produce detailed datasets; in-depth understanding across the scale of atmospheric processes involved; high-fidelity multiscale urban modelling tools; theoretical models taking account of multiscale effects; improved assessment of current meso-scale model skill and the data used by practitioners to explore future urban scenarios as city form and function change.We will work with local and international organisations and companies to ensure the project benefits a broad range of society. They include: Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, CERC, COWI, ECMWF, Met Office, Delft University of Technology, Stanford University, University Hannover, RWDI, SurreySensors and UKCRIC.

气候变化对当地和全球的影响（城市热岛效应加剧、环境条件恶化）影响着世界上大多数城市人口，但直到最近，城市才在天气预报模型中得到体现，尽管很粗糙。为了管理和发展可持续、有弹性和健康的城市，需要改进跨社区影响范围的预测和观测，下一代天气预报模型需要解决这些问题。 ASSURE 解决了哪些过程需要参数化以及哪些过程需要解决的关键问题，以捕获城市在空间和时间上的异质性。我们将结合现场观测、高分辨率数值模拟和风洞实验的结果，加深理解，为更大规模的城市气象和扩散模型开发新的方法和参数化。现场工作和建模将集中在布里斯托尔，因为其自然地理提供了适当的高水平复杂性，并允许进行整个城市的研究。由于中型城市是温室气体的主要来源，并且居住着大量人口，因此机构能够提供这种规模城市的天气和气候变化预测至关重要，因为他们需要这些信息来管理和提供服务。 ASSURE 将包括理想化的模拟和理论分析，以确保普遍适用性。ASSURE 的目标是：-了解城市异质性的来源（物理环境、建筑物和社区的布局、人类活动）如何结合起来影响城市的空间和时间氛围。 - 量化不同尺度（街道到社区、城市等）的城市异质性对流量、温度、湿度和空气质量控制过程的影响，并确定这些过程如何相互作用。 - 开发一个理论框架，以降低复杂性来捕获关键过程和反馈，以帮助中尺度和更大的模型参数化。 - 告知当前具有中尺度能力并用于决策过程（例如综合城市服务）的天气和气候模型的开发优先事项。 ASSURE 高保真度模拟和精心设计的实验将使我们能够探索孤立和组合配置中城市异质性的影响；解释和整合现场观测（例如 3D 气象和城市规模示踪剂分散实验）；整合不同的方法来了解不同尺度的过程模型中不确定性的大小、来源和地理范围；综合新知识进行理论分析；开发反映这种分析的算法。 ASSURE 中的新颖之处在于模拟解决了与中尺度模型相关的街道到城市尺度的特征；实地观测捕捉城市边界层和冠层的垂直和水平变化，包括新颖的多源气体示踪剂实验；以及大气稳定性和模型分辨率的风洞模拟。将对建筑形态（或形式）、当地地形和人类活动（例如废热和空气质量排放）变化的作用获得新的见解。ASSURE 将生成详细的数据集；深入了解所涉及的大气过程的规模；高保真多尺度城市建模工具；考虑多尺度效应的理论模型；改进对当前中观尺度模型技能和从业者使用的数据的评估，以探索随着城市形态和功能变化而变化的未来城市场景。我们将与本地和国际组织和公司合作，确保该项目惠及更广泛的社会。其中包括：雅芳家长和儿童纵向研究、CERC、COWI、ECMWF、英国气象局、代尔夫特理工大学、斯坦福大学、汉诺威大学、RWDI、SurreySensors 和 UKCRIC。