ASSURE: Across-Scale processeS in URban Environments

确保：城市环境中的跨规模流程

• 批准号: NE/W002922/1
• 负责人: Dudley Shallcross
• 金额: $ 52.08万
• 依托单位: University of Bristol
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2021 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FW002922%2F1
• 关键词: ASSURE; Across; Scale; processeS; URban

Local and global consequences of climate change (enhanced urban heat islands, worsening environmental conditions) affect most of the world's urban population, but only recently have cities been represented, albeit crudely, in weather forecast models. To manage and develop sustainable, resilient and healthy cities requires improved forecasting and observations that cross neighbourhood-influenced scales which the next generation weather forecast models need to resolve. ASSURE addresses the critical issue of which processes need to be parameterised, and which resolved, to capture urban heterogeneity in space and time. We will advance understanding to develop new approaches and parameterisations for larger-scale urban meteorological and dispersion models by combining the results of field observations, high-resolution numerical simulations and wind tunnel experiments. Field work and modelling will focus on Bristol, as its physical geography provides suitably high levels of complexity and allows whole-city approaches. With mid-sized cities being large sources of greenhouse gases, and where large numbers of people live, it is critical agencies can provide predictions of weather and climate variability across cities of this scale as they need this information to manage and provide their services. ASSURE will include idealised simulations and theoretical analyses to ensure generic applicability.The ASSURE objectives are:-To understand how sources of urban heterogeneity (physical setting, layout of buildings and neighbourhoods, human activities) combine to influence the urban atmosphere in space and time. - To quantify effects of urban heterogeneity at different scales (street to neighbourhood, to city and beyond) on flow, temperature, moisture and air quality controlling processes and to determine how these processes interact. - To develop a theoretical framework that captures key processes and feedbacks with reduced complexity to aid mesoscale and larger model parameterisations.- To inform the development priorities of current weather and climate models that have meso-scale capabilities and are used in decision-making processes (e.g. integrated urban services). The ASSURE high-fidelity simulations and carefully designed experiments will allow us to explore implications of urban heterogeneity in isolated and combined configurations; interpret and integrate field observations (e.g. 3D meteorological & city-scale tracer dispersion experiments); integrate different approaches to understand the magnitude, source, and geographical extent of uncertainties in process models at different scales; synthesize the new knowledge to conduct theoretical analyses; develop algorithms reflecting this analysis. Novel in ASSURE are simulations resolving street to city-scale features that are linked to mesoscale models; field observations capturing vertical and horizontal variations in the urban boundary- and canopy-layers, including novel multi-source gas tracer experiments; and wind tunnel simulations across atmospheric stabilities and model resolution. New insights will be gained on the role of variations in the building morphology (or form), local topography, and human activities (e.g. waste heat, and AQ emissions).ASSURE will produce detailed datasets; in-depth understanding across the scale of atmospheric processes involved; high-fidelity multiscale urban modelling tools; theoretical models taking account of multiscale effects; improved assessment of current meso-scale model skill and the data used by practitioners to explore future urban scenarios as city form and function change.We will work with local and international organisations and companies to ensure the project benefits a broad range of society. They include: Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, CERC, COWI, ECMWF, Met Office, Delft University of Technology, Stanford University, University Hannover, RWDI, SurreySensors and UKCRIC.

气候变化的地方和全球后果（城市热岛效应增强、环境条件恶化）影响到世界上大多数城市人口，但直到最近，城市才在天气预报模型中得到粗略的体现。要管理和发展可持续、有复原力和健康的城市，就需要改进预测和观测，这些预测和观测要跨越受邻里影响的尺度，下一代天气预报模型需要解决这些问题。ASSURE解决了哪些过程需要参数化，哪些过程需要解决的关键问题，以捕捉城市在空间和时间上的异质性。我们将通过结合实地观测，高分辨率数值模拟和风洞实验的结果，促进对大规模城市气象和扩散模型的新方法和参数化的理解。实地工作和建模将侧重于布里斯托，因为其自然地理提供了适当的高水平的复杂性，并允许整个城市的方法。由于中等规模的城市是温室气体的主要来源，并且有大量的人居住，因此机构可以提供这种规模的城市的天气和气候变化预测，因为他们需要这些信息来管理和提供服务。ASSURE将包括理想化的模拟和理论分析，以确保通用性。ASSURE的目标是：-了解城市异质性的来源（物理环境，建筑物和社区的布局，人类活动）如何结合联合收割机在空间和时间上影响城市大气。- 量化不同尺度（街道到社区，到城市和更远）的城市异质性对流量，温度，湿度和空气质量控制过程的影响，并确定这些过程如何相互作用。- 开发一个理论框架，以降低复杂性的方式捕获关键过程和反馈，以帮助中尺度和更大的模型参数化。为具有中尺度能力并用于决策进程（例如综合城市服务）的当前天气和气候模型的开发优先事项提供信息。ASSURE高保真模拟和精心设计的实验将使我们能够探索城市异质性在孤立和组合配置中的含义;解释和整合实地观察（例如，三维气象和城市尺度示踪剂扩散实验）;整合不同的方法，以了解不同尺度过程模型中不确定性的大小，来源和地理范围;综合新知识进行理论分析;开发反映这种分析的算法。ASSURE的创新之处在于模拟解决了与中尺度模型相关的街道到城市尺度的特征;现场观测捕捉了城市边界层和冠层的垂直和水平变化，包括新颖的多源气体示踪实验;以及跨大气稳定性和模型分辨率的风洞模拟。在建筑形态（或形式）、当地地形和人类活动的变化方面将获得新的见解ASSURE将产生详细的数据集;深入了解所涉及的大气过程的各个尺度;高保真多尺度城市建模工具;考虑到多尺度效应的理论模型;改进现有中尺度模型技术的评估，以及从业人员使用的数据，以探索随着城市形态和功能变化的未来城市情景。我们将与本地和国际组织和公司合作，确保项目造福社会各界。它们包括：雅芳家长和儿童纵向研究、CERC、COWI、ECMWF、气象局、德尔夫特理工大学、斯坦福大学、汉诺威大学、RWDI、SurreySensors和UKCRIC。