The Gulf Stream control of the North Atlantic carbon sink

湾流对北大西洋碳汇的控制

• 批准号: NE/W009536/1
• 负责人: Robyn Tuerena
• 金额: $ 25.37万
• 依托单位: Scottish Association For Marine Science
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2023 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FW009536%2F1
• 关键词: Gulf; Stream; control; North; Atlantic

We are all aware that atmospheric CO2 has risen over our lifetimes leading to global warming. The ocean has played an important role in moderating that atmospheric rise by taking up and storing 25% of the emitted carbon. However, the extent to which the ocean will continue to act in this manner as the ocean warms and becomes more acidic is unclear, as is the response in the future as we reduce carbon emissions to net zero in the next 20-30 years. A key region in addressing this question is the North Atlantic, which is disproportionately important for ocean carbon uptake. This carbon sink involves both the uptake of natural carbon (due to surface cooling and biological uptake) and of anthropogenic carbon (due to the rise in atmospheric CO2). A prevailing view is that this carbon sink will weaken in the future as surface warming decreases solubility and increases stratification, which inhibits the supply of nutrients and carbon to the surface ocean. However, this viewpoint takes a local perspective and does not account for the effect of the circulation in redistributing nutrients and carbon over the global ocean.We wish to propose and test the alternative viewpoint that the circulation plays a central role in determining the carbon sink, by setting the supply of nutrients and carbon to the surface waters of the North Atlantic. In particular, there is a phenomenon - the western boundary current or Gulf Stream - that is crucial for this problem. We know that the Gulf Stream is important for supplying heat to higher latitudes, leading to a warmer European climate. However, its role in driving carbon uptake remains little explored. Surface observations show that there are elevated rates of carbon uptake downstream of the Gulf Stream. This uptake occurs as older waters carried below the surface by the Gulf Stream are transferred downstream to the surface. These older waters are rich in nutrients and depleted in anthropogenic carbon. When these waters outcrop to the surface, they determine the surface nutrient and carbon concentrations, and so control the carbon uptake from the atmosphere. How much carbon uptake is driven by this nutrient and carbon 'stream' in the North Atlantic depends on multiple climate-sensitive processes, including the density range of the stream, the Gulf Stream transport, and a suite of physical and biogeochemical processes occurring along its path. We will use observations and models to comprehensively understand this pivotal phenomenon, distinguishing between several different mechanisms that transform the fluxes of properties at the beginning of the Gulf Stream to those entering the North Atlantic. We will make new measurements of how the Gulf Stream supply of nutrients and carbon varies all the way from Florida Straits to a carbon uptake hotspot downstream, a distance of over 2000 miles. We will employ moorings in Florida Straits to determine the nutrient and carbon properties at the start of the Gulf Stream. We will deploy a fleet of BioArgo floats and gliders to reveal how nutrients and carbon are conveyed from low to high latitudes, documenting their downstream evolution through the effects of physical transport, mixing and biological cycling. Our work programme sits between two ongoing observing arrays of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, RAPID at 26N and OSNAP between Labrador and Scotland, and these arrays place our observations in a wider context. We will test our ideas using experiments in circulation models, including assessing the sensitivity of the North Atlantic carbon sink to physical processes. Finally, we will evaluate how the carbon sink varies in climate model projections and establish whether the models' responses occur for the right reasons. Unravelling these controls of the ocean carbon sink is crucial if we are to understand and credibly predict the future evolution of the carbon sink, especially given the uncertain ocean response to net zero emissions.

我们都知道，大气中的二氧化碳在我们的一生中不断上升，导致了全球变暖。海洋吸收和储存了25%的碳排放，在减缓大气上升方面发挥了重要作用。然而，随着海洋变暖和变得更加酸性，海洋将在多大程度上继续以这种方式行动尚不清楚，随着我们在未来20-30年内将碳排放减少到净零，未来的反应也是不清楚的。解决这一问题的一个关键区域是北大西洋，它对海洋碳吸收的重要性格外重要。这种碳汇既包括自然碳的吸收(由于表面冷却和生物吸收)，也包括人为碳的吸收(由于大气中二氧化碳的增加)。一种流行的观点认为，这种碳汇在未来将会减弱，因为表面变暖会降低溶解度，增加层化，从而抑制向表层海洋供应营养物质和碳。然而，这一观点是从局部角度出发的，没有考虑到环流在全球海洋上重新分配营养物质和碳的影响。我们希望提出并检验另一种观点，即通过设定北大西洋表层水域的营养物质和碳供应，环流在决定碳汇方面发挥核心作用。特别是，有一种现象--西部边界流或墨西哥湾流--对这一问题至关重要。我们知道，墨西哥湾流对于向高纬度地区提供热量，导致欧洲气候变暖非常重要。然而，它在推动碳吸收方面的作用仍鲜有人探讨。地面观测表明，墨西哥湾流下游的碳吸收速率较高。这种吸收是由墨西哥湾流带到水面以下的较老的水向下游转移到水面上时发生的。这些较古老的水域营养丰富，但人类活动产生的碳却被消耗殆尽。当这些水露出水面时，它们决定了表面的营养物质和碳浓度，从而控制了大气中的碳吸收。北大西洋的这种营养和碳“流”在多大程度上推动了碳的吸收，这取决于多种气候敏感过程，包括流的密度范围、墨西哥湾流的输送，以及沿途发生的一系列物理和生物地球化学过程。我们将使用观测和模型来全面了解这一关键现象，区分几种不同的机制，这些机制将墨西哥湾流开始时的性质通量转化为进入北大西洋的性质通量。我们将对墨西哥湾流从佛罗里达海峡到下游超过2000英里的碳吸收热点的营养物质和碳供应的变化进行新的测量。我们将利用佛罗里达海峡的系泊设施来确定墨西哥湾流开始时的营养和碳特性。我们将部署一支BioArgo浮标和滑翔机舰队，揭示营养物质和碳是如何从低纬度输送到高纬度的，通过物理输送、混合和生物循环的影响记录它们的下游演变。我们的工作方案位于两个正在进行的大西洋经向翻转环流观测阵列之间，这两个阵列位于北纬26度的快速环流和拉布拉多和苏格兰之间的OSNAP，这些阵列将我们的观测置于更广泛的背景下。我们将使用环流模型中的实验来测试我们的想法，包括评估北大西洋碳汇对物理过程的敏感性。最后，我们将评估碳汇在气候模型预测中的变化，并确定模型的反应是否出于正确的原因。如果我们要理解和可信地预测碳汇的未来演变，解开对海洋碳汇的这些控制是至关重要的，特别是考虑到海洋对净零排放的不确定反应。