NERC-NSFGEO C-FORCE: Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks from Response to Carbon Emissions

NERC-NSFGEO C-FORCE：碳排放响应的碳循环反馈

• 批准号: NE/W009625/1
• 负责人: Sarah Greene
• 金额: $ 255.49万
• 依托单位: University of Birmingham
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2022 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FW009625%2F1
• 关键词: NERC; NSFGEO; FORCE; Carbon; Cycle

The dominant driver of anthropogenic global warming is the increasing amount of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. This is increasing because it is being emitted by the burning of fossil fuel, deforestation and cement making, with only ~45% staying in the atmosphere. The rest is stored in other reservoirs at or near Earth's surface including the ocean, trees, soils, permafrost and methane ice, as well as sediments and rock. Carbon flows naturally between the atmosphere and these reservoirs by processes like photosynthesis, decay, weathering, burial and ocean circulation. Collectively, the exchange of carbon between these reservoirs is termed the carbon cycle. One of the biggest uncertainties about future climate change is how the carbon cycle will respond to (or 'feed back' on) our warming planet. It is possible, for example, that if global warming exceeds a threshold, permafrost and methane ice stored at the seafloor will melt rapidly, adding further greenhouse gases to the atmosphere and accelerating the warming. It is very difficult to predict whether 'tipping point' behaviour like this will occur in the global carbon cycle.C-FORCE will measure how the global carbon cycle responded from start to finish during a past period of global warming that was driven by emissions of carbon-based greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) is the largest natural climate change event of the last 65 million years, and the closest natural comparator to the modern rates of global warming and carbon greenhouse gas emissions. During the PETM, initial global warming of 4-5 degrees Celsius over a few thousand years was partially driven by carbon emissions from an unusually massive episode of volcanism, and the climate then gradually recovered to its pre-existing state over more than 100 thousand years.C-FORCE will use a novel model of the global carbon cycle to compare the carbon supplied by volcanism with the total PETM carbon budget; the difference between these two budgets can be attributed to carbon cycle feedbacks. We will make new high-resolution estimates of the rate at which volcanism supplied carbon to the atmosphere throughout the PETM by measuring the processes that generated the magma. We will calculate the total budget of carbon emissions to the atmosphere that caused the climate change by generating new high-resolution records of ocean acidification. Our carbon cycle modelling will allow the scientists who make these two sets of measurements to interface effectively to solve the net global carbon cycle feedback problem for the first time. Furthermore, because Earth's carbon reservoirs differ in isotopic composition, we can fingerprint which reservoirs most likely acted as carbon sources or sinks over the course of the PETM. Thus C-FORCE will determine how the global carbon cycle evolved throughout the PETM, and show whether or not tipping point behaviour occurred. Understanding how Earth's carbon reservoirs respond to global warming is crucial for predicting atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and climate change long into the future. Ultimately, an improved understanding of the carbon cycle affects future carbon budgets to limit global warming to 1.5 or 2 degrees Celcius and is therefore necessary for shaping mitigation targets and government policy.Beyond delivering a research product, C-FORCE challenges current understanding of the carbon cycle and we see our role as an empowering force in this space. The public discourse on climate change is a mixture of disaffection and anxiety, so C-FORCE will take a different direction to traditional public engagement, by partnering with community organisers and local government to train, mentor and co-develop our public engagement with young people.

人为全球变暖的主要驱动力是大气中温室气碳碳含量的增加。之所以增加，是因为它是由于化石燃料，森林砍伐和水泥制造而发出的，只有约45％的人留在大气中。其余的存储在地球表面或附近的其他水库中，包括海洋，树木，土壤，多年冻土和甲烷冰，以及沉积物和岩石。碳通过光合作用，腐烂，风化，埋葬和海洋循环等过程自然流向大气和这些储层之间。总体而言，这些储层之间的碳交换称为碳循环。关于未来气候变化的最大不确定性之一是碳循环将如何响应我们变暖的星球（或“反馈”）。例如，如果全球变暖超过阈值，则储存在海底的阈值和甲烷冰将迅速融化，从而在大气中增加温室气体并加速变暖。很难预测在全球碳循环中是否会发生这种“临界点”行为。古新世 - 新世热最大（PETM）是过去6500万年的最大自然气候变化事件，也是与全球变暖和碳温室气体排放的现代速度最接近的自然比较器。在PETM期间，几千年来最初的4-5度摄氏摄氏度的最初变暖是由碳排放驱动的，这是由于异常大规模的火山症发作而驱动的，然后气候逐渐恢复到其预先存在的状态超过100千年的状态。这两个预算之间的差异可以归因于碳循环反馈。我们将通过测量产生岩浆的过程来对整个PETM的大气中向整个大气中提供碳提供碳的速率进行新的高分辨率估计。我们将通过产生新的高分辨率海洋酸化记录来计算大气中碳排放的总预算。我们的碳循环建模将使这两组测量值的科学家有效地接口，以首次解决净全球碳循环反馈问题。此外，由于地球的碳储存量在同位素组成方面有所不同，因此我们可以在PETM过程中充当碳源或下沉的储层指纹。因此，C-Force将确定全局碳循环如何在整个PETM中演变，并显示是否发生了临界点行为。了解地球的碳储层如何对全球变暖的反应对于预测大气二氧化碳浓度和气候变化至今至关重要至关重要。最终，对碳循环的改进理解会影响未来的碳预算，以将全球变暖限制为1.5或2度Celcius，因此对于塑造缓解目标​​和政府政策是必要的。BeyondBeyond挑战了对碳循环的最新理解，我们认为我们将我们的作用视为在这个空间中的授权力量。关于气候变化的公众讨论是不满和焦虑的混合，因此，C-Force将通过与社区组织者和地方政府合作培训，导师和共同开发我们与年轻人的公众参与，将向传统的公众参与迈出不同的方向。

项目成果

"you just look at rocks, and have beards" Perceptions of geology from the UK: a qualitative analysis from an online survey.

“你只看岩石，就长胡子” 英国对地质学的看法：来自在线调查的定性分析。

• DOI: 10.31223/x5md4n
• 发表时间: 2023
• 作者: Rogers S

Understanding Astronomically Forced Carbon Cycle Feedbacks Through the Lens of an Earth System Model

通过地球系统模型的视角理解天文强迫碳循环反馈

• DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu24-16488
• 发表时间: 2024
• 作者: Vervoort P

Four volcanically driven climatic perturbations led to enhanced continental weathering during the Late Triassic Carnian Pluvial Episode

• DOI: 10.1016/j.epsl.2023.118517
• 发表时间: 2024-01
• 期刊: Earth and Planetary Science Letters
• 影响因子: 5.3
• 作者: Peixin Zhang;Minfang Yang;Jing Lu;Zhongfeng Jiang;P. Vervoort;Kai Zhou;Xiaotao Xu;Huijuan Chen-Huijua