Population-level impact and geographic spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 outbreak in gannets

对于一些不幸的观察家来说，2022年夏天将因高致病性禽流感(HPAI)的爆发而被人们铭记，这场疫情导致北大西洋对岸殖民地的数千只海鸟死亡和痛苦。这些具有国际重要性的人口已经承受着人为变化的巨大压力；因此，我们不仅迫切需要知道这次疫情的影响，而且需要知道它可能如何传播。我们建议使用详细的基于个体的数据来估计HPAI对在最近的疫情中受到特别严重影响的物种--北方鹅的影响。使用捕获-标记-重新捕获技术，我们将在两个大型英国殖民地估计成虫存活概率，这比传统的人口普查或死亡鸟类计数要强大得多-一个受到HPAI(苏格兰的Bass Rock)的严重影响，而另一个仍然没有病毒(威尔士的Grassholm)。我们还将使用通过移动电话网络传输的鸟载GPS设备来跟踪群体间的活动。这将提供种群中哪些组成部分最有可能传播病毒的重要信息(通过将通常忠于群体的繁殖者与更多巡回的未成熟鸟类进行比较)，并为我们的东北大西洋鹅的集合种群模型提供信息。这个模型将使我们能够在相互连接的蜂群的现实情景下，预测HPAI对几乎整个鹅繁育范围的影响。最后，我们将能够确定特别容易受到病毒爆发和其他人为压力因素(如海上风电场建设)综合影响的人群。

For some unfortunate observers, the summer of 2022 will be remembered for an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), which led to the death and suffering of many thousands of seabirds at colonies across the North Atlantic. These internationally important populations were already under intense pressure from anthropogenic change; therefore, we need to know urgently not only the impact of this outbreak but how it might be spreading. We propose using detailed individual-based data to estimate the impact of HPAI on a species particularly severely impacted in the recent outbreak, the northern gannet. Using capture-mark-recapture techniques we will estimate adult survival probability, a much more robust measure than conventional population censuses or counts of dead birds, at two large UK colonies - one which has been severely impacted by HPAI (Bass rock in Scotland), while the other remains virus free (Grassholm in Wales). We will also track inter-colony movements using bird-borne GPS devices which transmit via the mobile phone network. This will provide vital information on which components of the population are most likely to spread the virus (by comparing the usually colony-faithful breeders with the more itinerant immature birds) and inform our metapopulation model for gannets in the northeast Atlantic. This model will enable us to predict the impact of HPAI across virtually the entire gannet breeding range, under the realistic scenario of inter-connected colonies. Finally, we will be able to identify populations particularly vulnerable to the combined effects of viral outbreaks and other anthropogenic stressors such as the construction of offshore wind farms.