OCCUPATIONAL FATALITY TRENDS: A CONTEXTUAL ANALYSIS

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The rate of fatal occupational injuries in the United States has been declining since the 1970s. At the same time, the structure of the economy has undergone profound changes that may have consequences for workers' health and safety, and for the ability to monitor and assure them through public health interventions. We propose an epidemiologic study of the relationship of long- term trends in fatal occupational injury to economic and labor- force factors at national and regional levels. The overall goal of the research is to examine the context of trends in fatal injury rates. We will consider differences among industrial sectors, worker groups, and geographic regions and examine some of their potential causes, focusing on structural changes in the economy and the workforce. Specifically, we seek to answer the following research questions: 1) What was the average annual change in the rate of fatal occupational injury from 1980 to 1994 for the nation, for its principal geographic regions, and for specific sectors of industry, major occupational groups and worker groups defined by sex, age, and race? 2) Do characteristics of states and regions, including compensation levels, population mobility, the proportion of women and minorities in the labor force, educational attainment, the power of labor relative to capital and regulatory climate, predict differences in occupational fatality trends between 1980 and 1994? 3) Was the relative decline in fatal occupational injury rates from 1980 to 1994 equal for potentially vulnerable groups of workers and for other worker groups with greater historical advantages? 4) Would the overall rate of fatal occupational injury observed toward the middle of the 1990s have been the same as the rate in the early 1980s if there had been no restructuring of the labor force? and 5) How are trends modified by the interplay of factors on regional, industry, and individual levels of organization? To address these questions we will conduct a contextual analysis using data collected by US governmental agencies. In evaluating regional patterns, we will devote attention to the South as a region of particular importance, which has led some current trends. This proposal responds to two NIOSH priority areas: traumatic injury, and organization of work. The research has the potential both to produce greater knowledge of the relationship of worker safety to larger trends beyond the workplace itself, and to identify steps that can be taken to maintain or improve safety as other conditions of work change.