A comprehensive understanding of Australian heat waves: past, present and future.

全面了解澳大利亚热浪：过去、现在和未来。

• 批准号: DE140100952
• 负责人: Prof Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick
• 金额: $ 27.57万
• 依托单位: The University of New South Wales
• 依托单位国家: 澳大利亚
• 项目类别: Discovery Early Career Researcher Award
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 澳大利亚
• 起止时间: 2014-03-31 至 2017-03-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://dataportal.arc.gov.au/RGS/Web/Grants/DE140100952
• 关键词: comprehensive; understanding; Australian; heat; waves

The frequency and duration of Australian heat waves is increasing. Existing theories include natural and human influences, however the relative roles of specific heat wave drivers are undefined. Using an ensemble of contemporary climate models, this project will determine the individual and combined roles of anthropogenic activities, natural forcings and internal variability that shape heat wave manifestation. Using the ability of models to simulate the appropriate mechanistic connections, plausible future projections of heat waves will be ascertained. This will be the first comprehensive analysis of changes in heat waves, providing essential resources for the adaptation, mitigation and preparedness towards future events.

澳大利亚热浪的频率和持续时间正在增加。现有的理论包括自然和人类的影响，但具体的热浪驱动因素的相对作用是不确定的。利用当代气候模式的集合，该项目将确定形成热浪表现的人类活动、自然强迫和内部变率的单独和组合作用。利用模型的能力来模拟适当的机械连接，合理的未来预测热浪将被确定。这将是对热浪变化的第一次全面分析，为适应、减缓和防备未来事件提供必要的资源。