EARNINGS DYNAMICS, SAVING AND ADJUSTMENT TO SHOCKS

盈利动态、储蓄和应对冲击的调整

• 批准号: 6299322
• 负责人: MATTHEW D SHAPIRO
• 金额: $ 12.95万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2000
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2000-04-01 至 2003-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/6299322
• 关键词: aging; behavioral /social science research tag; disability insurance; emotional adjustment; household; human population study; human subject; income; interview; mathematical model; model design /development; psychological shock; retirement; social model; socioeconomics

Earnings dynamics and the adjustment of households to shocks to their earnings are fundamental ingredients to understanding many aspects of household behavior. Moreover, they are key determinants of how households will respond to changes in Social Security policy. This project will use unique elements of the Health and Retirement Survey to quantify the stochastic process for earnings and to study how households respond to shocks to their earnings. The project has two parts. The first will estimate earnings dynamics. The second will use these estimates of earnings dynamics to study saving, asset accumulation, and portfolio choice. First, this project will exploit the matching of the Social Security Administration's earnings histories and the HRS data in order to quantify the dynamics of individuals' earnings over their lives. It will focus on describing and interpreting the relative importance of permanent transitory movements in earnings, and thus characterize the relation between current income and permanent income. Second, the project will use the estimated earnings dynamics--together with data on wealth, saving and consumption, and portfolio choice--to analyze household saving and asset accumulation decisions. It will address several questions. How do households respond to unpredictable movements in earnings? How do households adjust their asset stock in anticipation of shocks to earnings? And how do portfolio allocations, e.g. between stocks and bonds, respond to earnings uncertainty.

收入动态和家庭对其收入冲击的调整 收入是理解许多方面的基本要素， 家庭行为。此外，它们是决定家庭 将应对社会保障政策的变化。This project will use 健康和退休调查的独特元素，以量化 收入的随机过程，并研究家庭如何应对 冲击他们的收入。该项目有两个部分。第一个将 估计收益动态。第二个将使用这些估计， 研究储蓄、资产积累和投资组合的收益动态 选择 首先，本项目将利用社会保障的匹配性 管理层的收益历史和HRS数据，以便量化 个人一生中收入的动态变化。将重点 描述和解释永久性的相对重要性 收入的短暂变动，从而描述了 当前收入和永久收入之间的差距。 第二，该项目将使用估计的收益动态-- 财富、储蓄和消费以及投资组合选择的数据， 分析家庭储蓄和资产积累决策。它将处理 几个问题家庭如何应对不可预测的 收益？家庭如何调整他们的资产存量， 冲击收益？如何进行投资组合分配，例如在股票之间 和债券，对收益的不确定性作出反应。