INSTRUCTIONAL BAYESIAN ANALYSIS FOR RANDOMIZED TRIALS

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Progress in healthcare research depends heavily on demonstrations of efficacy and safety via clinical trials. Bayesian methods offer a valuable alternative mode of analysis for clinical trials. By comparison with standard "frequentist" methods, Bayesian methods provide more interpretable outputs, use all the available evidence, and lend themselves to the more complex analyses demanded by complex healthcare research. Unfortunately, few biostatisticians have received training in Bayesian methods. We propose to produce user-friendly software to enable Bayesian analysis of data from clinical trials. PROPOSED COMMERCIAL APPLICATIONS: Clinical trials represent a $7 billion industry. Statistical software for this industry is itself a significant business. We will license iBART both to drug company trialists and to federally sponsored clinical researchers. We expect iBART's tutorial and the Bayesian approach in general to appeal especially to the many trialists without specialized statistical qualifications.