The threat from space debris in low earth orbit: understanding and mitigating the risk

这项建议实际上是关于近地空间环境的人为污染(该地区在项目号召中被命名为可接受的申请区域)。60年来，我们一直在发射卫星，主要是进入近地(LEO)轨道，几乎没有考虑这些飞行器的最终命运。因此，碎片的水平一直在迅速上升，因此现在发生碰撞的风险越来越大，而且明显存在。近地轨道特别拥挤，因为这些轨道最容易到达。它们也特别危险，因为这些轨道上的碎片可以以很大的相对速度移动。有鉴于此，即使是很小的碎片(一厘米)也可能使航天器在碰撞中失效。未来几年，随着所谓的“巨型”小型卫星星座的发射，情况将明显恶化。例如，埃隆·马斯克的星链星座获得许可，可以将32000颗小型卫星(是目前正在运行的卫星数量的16倍)送入轨道。缓解依赖于大气阻力，据说是在25年内脱离轨道。欧空局/NASA估计，轨道上有90万到50万颗卫星碎片(1厘米或更大)，而且显然注定会变得更糟。目前，大多数低轨卫星碎片是通过雷达技术(RF)跟踪和表征的。从历史上看，这些导弹最初都是军用的(设计用于导弹预警系统)，但在过去的几年里，出现了一些规模较小的商业运营商。从零星的射频测量得出的糟糕的轨道参数意味着，目前只有2%的卫星杀戮碎片被跟踪。然而，光学跟踪技术可以提供与射频相比的明显优势：光学观测可以给出准确的轨道，这将导致种群目录的建立。我们一直在寻找一种比射频更便宜、更准确的新方法/技术。虽然我们有一系列不同的传感器和光学设备可供我们使用，但原型将需要高性能的望远镜支架才能有效，并需要开发实时分析软件来跟上数据速率。在授权期内，我们将开发和演示技术和原型的能力，并与我们的合作伙伴设计最终的仪器配置，以便在现场有效。

This proposal is effectively about the artificial pollution of the near earth space environment (this area is named in the project call as an acceptable area for applications). We have been launching satellites mostly into low earth (LEO) orbit for 60 years with little regard for the ultimate fate of these vehicles. Consequently, the level of debris has been rapidly rising so that now there is a growing and appreciable risk of collision. Low earth orbits are particularly congested as these are easiest to reach. They are also particularly dangerous as debris in these orbits can be moving at large relative velocities. Given this even small debris (a cm) can disable a spacecraft through collisions. The situation is due to worsen appreciably over the next few years with the launch of so-called "mega" constellations of small satellites. For example, Elon Musk's Starlink constellation is licensed to install 32000 small satellites (16x the number of currently operational satellites) into orbit. Mitigation relies on atmospheric drag supposedly de-orbiting within 25 years. ESA/NASA estimate there are 0.9M- 0.5M pieces of satellite killing debris (1cm or larger in size) in orbit and this is clearly destined to get much worse.Currently LEO debris are mostly tracked and characterised through radar techniques (RF). Historically these have been military in original (designed for missile early warning systems), but in the last few years a number of smaller scale commercial operators have appeared. Poor orbital parameters derived from sporadic RF measurements means that only 2% of satellite killing debris are currently being tracked. However, optical tracking techniques can offer distinct advantages over the RF: optical observations can give accurate orbits which will lead to a build up of the population catalog. We have been looking at a new methodology/techniques that will be cheaper and more accurate than the RF. While we have a range of difference sensors and optics available to us the prototype will need a high performance telescope mount to be effective and the development of real time analysis software to keep up with the data rate.Over the grant period we will develop and demonstrate the capability of technique and prototype and with our partners devise the final instrumental configuration to be effective in the field.