PROBABALISTIC CALIBRATION OF HYDRODYNAMIC MODELS

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The aim of this research is to explore the calibration of hydrodynamic models and the uncertainties inherent in these models. This research will develop an automatic Bayesian parameter estimation framework for probabilistic estimation of hydrodynamic model parameters. This research aims to provide UK flood modellers, risk assessors and policy makers with a probabilistic calibration and uncertainty analysis framework for hydrodynamic models. This will have social and economic benefits from improving flood warnings, accurate estimation of flood risk and impact and developing risk-based flood management strategies and policies.