The association between symptoms, activity tracking and weather conditions in patients with arthritis and other chronic pain

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For centuries, it has been speculated that there is an association between the weather and joint pain. However, data quality issues have left researchers as yet unable to reach any definite conclusions. Cloudy with a Chance of Pain is a major new project funded by Arthritis Research UK that will exploit the widespread uptake of smartphones to gather regular, high quality data on patient symptoms, physical activity and weather conditions and investigate the relationships between them in patients with arthritis and other chronic pain.This PhD project will use data from the Cloudy with a Chance of Pain study to:1. Develop and test a statistical model for forecasting pain in patients with arthritis based on weather conditions2. Investigate the association between passively-monitored physical activity levels and patient-reported symptomsIn years 1 and 2 will include training in epidemiology, biostatistics, statistical computing and prediction modelling. Literature review on weather and symptoms in patients with arthritis, with a focus on analytical methodology, as well as review of epidemiological models of short-term effects of environmental exposures on health. Longitudinal analysis of association between local weather conditions obtained via smartphone GPS location and patient symptom data entered via a smartphone app. Development of a prediction model for pain based on the weather ("pain forecast").Year 2 and 3 will include obtaining, cleaning and preparing physical activity data from linked activity monitors and determine measures best suited for analysis. Longitudinal analysis of activity measures and symptom data. A prediction model for future joint pain based on weather forecasts would allow patients to plan their activities. An understanding of the association between passively monitored physical activity and disease severity would allow development of a novel outcome measure for use in clinical care and research.