Adaptive Governance for Energy System dDecentralization: A case study of the National Electricity Market in eastern Australia

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It has become clear from IGov that the energy system is facing a number of challenges to its governance. One of those issues for change appears to be coming from the movement to disinvest from fossil fuels.This currently rapidly growing movement is inter-linked with the carbon bubble research (CTI 2014) that shows that much of the known fossil fuel reserves need to stay in the ground in order to meet the challenge of climate change, and keep below a few degrees average global warming. It also shows that the valuation of companies related to these reserves risks a rapid reduction in share values,which could in turn lead to a financial crisis, and further falling fossil fuel demand. The Bank of England (Carney 2014), and Lord Turner, former CEO of the Financial Services Authority (The Actuary 2015), are two unexpected voices which have raised concerns on this issue. If this movement gathers momentum it raises questions over what impact this will have on some of the biggest actors within the energy system. At the same time, it has become clear in some countries that the disinvestment arguments are working alongside economic arguments for customers to become self-generators (usually with solar and storage technologies). In these situations, the network companies (which have hitherto relied on a payment per kWh used as revenue) are faced with network costs having to be paid for by fewer units of electricity. One answer is for suppliers to raise the network cost proportion of the unit of electricity which in turn makes it even more economic for customers to move to solar and storage. This is known as the 'death spiral'. Australia is one such place where this is happening and the PhD Case Study will be in Australia (1 trip).The point of the PhD is to come to some conclusion about how important the fossil fuel disinvestment movement is as a driver of energy policy; how important the carbon bubble argument is for energy policy; and whether 'death spirals' are unusual occurrences for network companies or whether their drivers are something the network companies need to understand. All of this has to be placed in a whole system view of energy policy, and within relevant theoretical debates about theories of change and transformation.