The Sun The Stratosphere and Seasonal Climate Prediction

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Scientific Background: Monthly and seasonal forecasting is an increasingly important research area because of its relevance across many sectors of society. It combines elements of atmospheric science and oceanography with related areas such as climate modelling and extreme weather.The rotation of the Sun causes variations in the amount of ultraviolet solar radiation reaching us on Earth, which can affect the stratosphere - a region increasingly recognised as having a large effect on surface climate - in two ways. Firstly, such changes affect the ozone layer, causing changes to the temperature and circulation of the stratosphere; secondly, repeated changes can cause "sudden stratospheric warmings", which are dramatic events known to play a significant role on European winter climate.This project aims to understand the role of monthly solar variability on the stratosphere, and how such variability might affect the monthly and seasonal prediction of surface weather and climate.Research Methodology:The work will be accomplished using a combination of observations, theory, and a variety of computer models from simpler circulation codes, to the state-of-the-art seasonal prediction system at the United Kingdom Met Office. The project builds onongoing world-leading related research in the Met Office in seasonal prediction and "space weather".