Investigating the efficacy of vaccine strategies in Turkey using a mathematical epidemiological model18

口蹄疫（FMD）是世界上最重要的家畜疾病之一，感染约70种不同的偶蹄动物。在无口蹄疫地区，口蹄疫流行的直接和间接费用可高达数十亿美元。在口蹄疫流行地区，由于口蹄疫造成的生产损失加剧了贫困，阻碍了采用生产率更高但更容易感染口蹄疫的生产方法。此外，口蹄疫流行的地区在国际牲畜贸易中受到限制。然而，口蹄疫流行地区也对目前无口蹄疫的地区构成重新引入的威胁。疾病的数学模型很重要，因为它们可以帮助阐明防治疾病的有效政策选择，并已在无口蹄疫地区广泛使用。流行地区对在无口蹄疫地区重新引入口蹄疫所构成的威胁很重要。然而，由于地方性口蹄疫的复杂性和缺乏数据，建模工作主要集中在流行病情况上，而对流行病情况的了解较少。该项目建议根据来自土耳其的现有数据开发一种地方性口蹄疫模型，土耳其在获得高质量数据方面有些独特，并且位于基本上没有口蹄疫的欧洲和流行的中东的边界。这项工作涉及三个目标：从成本效益和消除几种不同疫苗接种策略的可能性方面评估效力；制定并比较农民主导和政府主导的应对口蹄疫战略；并将这项工作移植到肯尼亚，利用欧洲口蹄疫委员会的数据来评估同样的情况。

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most important livestock diseases in the world, infecting approximately 70 different species of cloven-hoofed animal species. In FMD-free regions, the costs of an FMD epidemic can rise to billions of dollars in direct and indirect costs. In FMD-endemic regions, production losses due to the disease exacerbate poverty and discourage the adoption of more productive but more FMD-susceptible production methods. Additionally, regions where FMD is endemic are restricted in the international livestock trade. However, regions of endemic FMD also pose a threat of reintroduction to regions currently free of FMD.Mathematical models of diseases are important for the assistance they can provide in clarifying effective policy options for combating disease, and have been used extensively in FMD-free regions. Endemic regions are important for the threat they pose in reintroducing FMD to regions free of the disease. However, due to the complexity of endemic FMD and lack of data, modelling efforts have focused on epidemic situations and the endemic situation is less well understood. This project proposes to develop a model of endemic FMD based on data available from Turkey, a country somewhat unique in the availability of good-quality data and which sits at the boundary of a largely FMD-free Europe and an endemic Middle East. The work addresses three aims: assessing the efficacy in terms of cost-effectiveness and likelihood of eradication of several different vaccination strategies; developing and comparing farmer-led and government-led strategies of tackling FMD; and transplanting this work to assess the same in Kenya using data from the EuFMD Commission.