Investigating the efficacy of vaccine strategies in Turkey using a mathematical epidemiological model18

口蹄疫是世界上最重要的牲畜疾病之一，感染约70种不同的偶蹄动物。在无口蹄疫地区，口蹄疫疫情的直接和间接成本可能高达数十亿美元。在口蹄疫流行地区，这种疾病造成的生产损失加剧了贫困，阻碍了采用更高产但更易受口蹄疫影响的生产方法。此外，口蹄疫流行的地区在国际牲畜贸易中受到限制。然而，地方性口蹄疫流行地区也构成了重新引入目前无口蹄疫地区的威胁。疾病的数学模型对于它们在澄清防治疾病的有效政策选择方面提供的帮助很重要，并已在无口蹄疫地区得到广泛应用。流行地区对于将口蹄疫重新引入无疾病地区构成的威胁是重要的。然而，由于地方性口蹄疫的复杂性和缺乏数据，建模工作主要集中在疫情上，而对地方性疫情的了解较少。该项目建议根据土耳其提供的数据开发地方性口蹄疫模型，土耳其是一个在获得高质量数据方面独一无二的国家，它位于基本上没有口蹄疫的欧洲和地方性中东的边界上。这项工作涉及三个目标：从成本效益和根除几种不同疫苗战略的可能性方面评估效力；制定和比较农民主导和政府主导的应对口蹄疫战略；将这项工作移植到肯尼亚，使用欧洲口蹄疫委员会的数据进行评估。

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most important livestock diseases in the world, infecting approximately 70 different species of cloven-hoofed animal species. In FMD-free regions, the costs of an FMD epidemic can rise to billions of dollars in direct and indirect costs. In FMD-endemic regions, production losses due to the disease exacerbate poverty and discourage the adoption of more productive but more FMD-susceptible production methods. Additionally, regions where FMD is endemic are restricted in the international livestock trade. However, regions of endemic FMD also pose a threat of reintroduction to regions currently free of FMD.Mathematical models of diseases are important for the assistance they can provide in clarifying effective policy options for combating disease, and have been used extensively in FMD-free regions. Endemic regions are important for the threat they pose in reintroducing FMD to regions free of the disease. However, due to the complexity of endemic FMD and lack of data, modelling efforts have focused on epidemic situations and the endemic situation is less well understood. This project proposes to develop a model of endemic FMD based on data available from Turkey, a country somewhat unique in the availability of good-quality data and which sits at the boundary of a largely FMD-free Europe and an endemic Middle East. The work addresses three aims: assessing the efficacy in terms of cost-effectiveness and likelihood of eradication of several different vaccination strategies; developing and comparing farmer-led and government-led strategies of tackling FMD; and transplanting this work to assess the same in Kenya using data from the EuFMD Commission.