Simulation Modeling of Colorectal Cancer

结直肠癌的仿真建模

• 批准号: 6479142
• 负责人: ROBERT Steven DITTUS
• 金额: $ 34.86万
• 依托单位: VANDERBILT UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2002
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2002-04-15 至 2005-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/6479142
• 关键词: adenoma; cancer information system; cancer risk; colorectal neoplasms; computer assisted diagnosis; computer human interaction; computer program /software; computer simulation; computer system design /evaluation; cost effectiveness; endoscopy; gastrointestinal imaging /visualization; health behavior; mass screening; mathematical model; model design /development

DESCRIPTION: The goals of this research are to build a new and more powerful discrete-event simulation model based on an existing, validated computer model of the natural history of colorectal neoplasia and use the new model to address questions concerning the clinical outcomes, cost, effectiveness, cost- effectiveness, and resource utilization of various colorectal cancer (CRC) control strategies for patients and for complex and dynamic populations. These goal will be achieved through the translation of an existing model into C++, an object-oriented programming language that would improve the model's ease of modification, decrease the time needed to complete an analysis, and allow direct interaction between the model and other commonly available programming applications. The new model will be programmed to allow the simulation of populations whose individual members are characterized by multiple and interacting cancer risk factors, have varying degrees of adherence with established cancer control protocols, and receive their care in settings where the resources needed to provide cancer control interventions are limited. The parameterization of this model will be based on a rigorous review of the literature and the model will be validated by several methods, including existing cancer control outcome data. After completion of its programming, parameterization and validation, the applicant will demonstrate the power and versatility of this new computer model by employing it in various complex analyses concerning the expected outcome over time of implementing new cancer control strategies in both the general U.S. population and specific subpopulations representing relevant geopolitical and payer/provider groupings. In addition, the applicant will examine the impact of resource constraints (such as manpower) on the outcomes of proposed cancer control strategies and the implications of disparities in such resources across geopolitical boundaries and healthcare provider markets. The completed model will be able to predict the outcomes of any given CRC control strategy, among specific risk-defined patient subgroups, in any given population, during and over any period of time. This model could serve as a template and modeling paradigm for the examination of the cost-effectiveness of prevention and treatment strategies for other cancers and for diseases other than cancer.

本研究的目标是建立一个新的，更强大的 离散事件仿真模型基于现有的、经过验证的计算机模型 结直肠肿瘤的自然史，并使用新的模型， 解决有关临床结局、成本、有效性、成本- 各种结直肠癌（CRC）有效性和资源利用 控制策略，为病人和复杂的和动态的人口。 这些目标将通过将现有模型转换为 C++是一种面向对象的编程语言，它将改进模型的 易于修改，减少完成分析所需的时间，以及 允许模型和其他常用的 编程应用程序。 新模型将被编程为允许 模拟个体成员特征为 多种相互作用的癌症风险因素，有不同程度的 遵守既定的癌症控制方案，并在 提供癌症控制干预所需资源的环境 是有限的。 该模型的参数化将基于严格的 文献综述和模型将通过几种方法进行验证， 包括现有的癌症控制结果数据。 在完成其 编程，参数化和验证，申请人将证明 这种新的计算机模型的能力和多功能性， 关于长期预期结果的各种复杂分析， 在美国普通人群中实施新的癌症控制策略， 以及代表相关地缘政治和 付款人/提供者分组。 此外，申请人将审查影响 资源限制（如人力）对拟议癌症治疗结果的影响 控制战略和这种资源不均衡的影响 跨越地缘政治边界和医疗保健提供商市场。 完成的 模型将能够预测任何给定CRC控制策略的结果， 在特定风险定义的患者亚组中，在任何给定人群中， 在任何时间段内。 这一模式可以作为一个模板， 审查预防的成本效益的模式范例 以及其他癌症和癌症以外的疾病的治疗策略。