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How do different disciplinary communities understand the uncertainties of modeling in international climate change and energy research?

How do different disciplinary communities understand the uncertainties of modeling in international climate change and energy research?
不同学科界如何理解国际气候变化和能源研究中建模的不确定性?
批准号:
1923238
负责人:
金额:
$0.0万
依托单位:
依托单位国家:
英国
项目类别:
Studentship
财政年份:
2017
资助国家:
英国
项目状态:
已结题
起止时间:
2017 至 --

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中文摘要
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英文摘要
Planning mitigation approaches in climate change requires highly complex modelling to be performed of global climate and energy systems. All modelling requires a number of underlying assumptions to be made so that reality may be conveniently represented; however, in the case of climate change, systemic uncertainties and decision risks are extremely high. Consequently uncertainties must be handled with particular rigour. Scientists may assume that modelling work is guided by strict positivist principles and often do not appreciate the extent to which their understanding of their work is socially constructed. I intend to explore why people in different disciplinary communities may deal with the inherent uncertainties in what they do in the way they do. This will involve identifying and exploring what conceptual models these groups use to understand their practices and more widely the process of doing climate science or energy systems research. It is hoped that this may lead to a better understanding of what institutional structures and best practices can facilitate open and constructive discourses on this topic.
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会议论文
The ambiguities of uncertainty: A review of uncertainty frameworks relevant to the assessment of environmental change
不确定性的模糊性:与环境变化评估相关的不确定性框架回顾
DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2022.102919
发表时间: 2022
期刊: Futures
影响因子: 3
作者: [Bevan L]
通讯作者: Bevan L
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