How do different disciplinary communities understand the uncertainties of modeling in international climate change and energy research?

不同学科界如何理解国际气候变化和能源研究中建模的不确定性？

• 批准号: 1923238
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University College London
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2017 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-1923238
• 关键词: How; do; different; disciplinary; communities

Planning mitigation approaches in climate change requires highly complex modelling to be performed of global climate and energy systems. All modelling requires a number of underlying assumptions to be made so that reality may be conveniently represented; however, in the case of climate change, systemic uncertainties and decision risks are extremely high. Consequently uncertainties must be handled with particular rigour. Scientists may assume that modelling work is guided by strict positivist principles and often do not appreciate the extent to which their understanding of their work is socially constructed. I intend to explore why people in different disciplinary communities may deal with the inherent uncertainties in what they do in the way they do. This will involve identifying and exploring what conceptual models these groups use to understand their practices and more widely the process of doing climate science or energy systems research. It is hoped that this may lead to a better understanding of what institutional structures and best practices can facilitate open and constructive discourses on this topic.

规划气候变化的缓解办法需要对全球气候和能源系统进行高度复杂的建模。所有建模都需要作出一些基本假设，以便方便地反映现实情况；然而，就气候变化而言，系统性不确定性和决策风险极高。因此，必须特别严格地处理不确定因素。科学家可能会认为，建模工作是由严格的实证主义原则指导的，他们往往不理解他们对自己工作的理解在多大程度上是由社会建构的。我打算探索为什么不同学科社区的人可能会以他们的方式处理他们所做的事情中固有的不确定性。这将涉及确定和探索这些小组使用什么概念模型来理解他们的实践，以及更广泛地进行气候科学或能源系统研究的过程。希望这能使人们更好地了解哪些体制结构和最佳做法可以促进就这一专题进行公开和建设性的讨论。

项目成果

The ambiguities of uncertainty: A review of uncertainty frameworks relevant to the assessment of environmental change

不确定性的模糊性：与环境变化评估相关的不确定性框架回顾

• DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2022.102919
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Futures
• 影响因子: 3
• 作者: Bevan L