Understanding Russia's use of Transborder Nationalism - A Tool of Hard Power in Disguise of Soft Power?

在过去的十年里，俄罗斯试图通过不同的方式影响邻国。其一是通过俄罗斯民族和历史文化归属的概念，以及俄罗斯与其他国家公民之间存在牢固联系的概念。这可能被视为一种跨境民族主义，俄罗斯试图在核心国家之外创建或维持一个共同体。然而，在唯一的软实力失败的地方，俄罗斯似乎并不回避使用其硬实力，这一点从格鲁吉亚、乌克兰和爱沙尼亚(网络攻击)等案例中可见一斑。我想把我的研究重点放在俄罗斯明显的软实力和硬实力的结合上，以及这个国家作为散布在后苏联地区的各种人口的守护国的角色。我提议的研究项目的主要目标是研究俄罗斯为加强其对其近邻国家的影响力而使用的方法，并分析俄罗斯决策者采用的特定类型的跨境民族主义。我的两个主要问题是：1.俄罗斯在东欧、高加索和中亚利用软实力的方法和战略。这一工具是自己使用的，还是故意与硬实力一起使用？2.俄罗斯推动跨境民族主义是否对邻国的内部稳定和主权构成安全威胁？为了更好地理解当代俄罗斯的外交政策，并明确其软实力和硬实力的运用，本研究将主要依靠定性的方法。在适当的情况下，定性分析还将得到定量证据的支持。为了更深入地了解俄罗斯的活动和政策，我还将使用比较的方法，既研究俄罗斯对不同前苏联国家的行为的差异，也包括将当前的俄罗斯战略与俄罗斯和苏联在以前时期所采用的战略联系起来的历史视角。为了实现这一点，我需要把重点放在已经存在的文件和文献上，这需要深入阅读这些材料。由于我懂俄语，我将能够学习政府文件、学术文章和报纸等第一手资料。为了能够全面分析俄罗斯的现代行为，并试图解释和解释这些国家的进一步目的和动机，我将对学者和政界人士进行采访。通过我以前的学习和工作经验，通过我在该地区的联系，这将是可能的。我的第一年需要深入阅读我的主题，并产生我的工作的初稿。在第二年，我会继续深入阅读，在档案馆工作，并进行采访。在我第二年即将结束的时候，我将准备完成我的期末论文的第一份完整草稿。在初稿完成后，我将在第三年与我的主管一起进行最后修改，以便在年底前完成研究。我相信，这个主题对于预测和理解当代俄罗斯的外交政策战略，以及俄罗斯对其近邻的行为具有重要意义。我希望我对这一主题的研究将有助于澄清俄罗斯采取的战略，并有助于讨论与这些问题有关的软实力、国籍和潜在安全问题等概念。我希望我的研究能对那些对俄罗斯外交政策感兴趣的人有所帮助，比如政府官员和决策者。

During the last decade Russia has sought to influence their neighbouring countries through different means. One is through the idea of Russian ethnicity and historical and cultural belonging, and the notion that there exist strong bonds between Russia and some populations that are citizens of other countries. This could be seen as a form of transborder nationalism where Russia is trying to create or maintain a community outside of the core nation. However, where sole soft power has failed, Russia does not seem to shy away from using its hard power as well, which is evident from cases such as Georgia, Ukraine and Estonia (cyber attacks). I would like to focus my research on Russia's apparent mix of soft and hard power, and the role of the country as a patron state for various populations dispersed in the post-soviet region. The main goal of my proposed research project is to study the methods that Russia uses in order to strengthen its influence over the countries in its near abroad, as well as analysing the particular type of transborder nationalism employed by Russian decision makers. My two main questions are: 1. Methods and strategies in the use of Russian soft power in Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia. Is this tool used by its own or is it deliberately used in tandem with hard power? 2. Is the Russian promotion of transborder nationalism posing a security threat to neighbouring countries' internal stability and sovereignty? This study will primarily rely upon qualitative methods in order to better understand contemporary Russian foreign policy and pinpoint its use of soft and hard power. The qualitative analysis will also be supported by quantitative evidence where appropriate. To achieve a deeper understanding of the Russian activities and policies I will also use a comparative approach, both studying the variation in Russian conduct towards the different former USSR countries, but also including a historical perspective linking current Russian strategies to those employed by Russia and the Soviet Union in previous periods. In order to achieve this I need to focus on already existing documents and literature, which requires an in-depth reading of the material. Since I have knowledge of Russian I will be able to study first hand sources such as governmental documents, academic articles and newspapers. To be able to make a comprehensive analysis of the modern behaviour of Russia, and also in an attempt to interpret and explain the countries further aims and motives, I will conduct interviews with both academics and politicians. This will be possible through the contacts I have in the region through previous studies and work experience.My first year would require in-depth reading on my subject as well as producing a preliminary draft of my work. During year two I would continue my in-depth reading, working in archives and conducting interviews. Toward the end of my second year I will be prepared to complete my first full draft on my final dissertation. After the completion of the first draft I would spend the third year making the final revisions together with my supervisor, in order to complete the study before the end of the year.I believe that this topic carries importance in terms of predicting and understanding contemporary Russian foreign policy strategies, and Russia's behaviour towards its immediate neighbours. I hope that my research on this topic would help clarify the strategies employed by Russia and contribute to the discussion on concepts such as soft power, nationality and potential security issues linked to these questions. My hope is that my study could be of use for those who are interested in Russian foreign policy, such as government officials and decision makers.