STATISTICAL METHODS FOR INTERVAL-CENSORED AIDS DATA

本提案的目的是解决统计问题 并制定统计方法， 来自艾滋病研究的区间删失数据。 这些研究发挥了 在艾滋病治疗发展中起着至关重要的作用， 流行病和与卫生有关的决策过程。 艾滋病临床试验是艾滋病发展的关键组成部分 治疗和区间删失问题经常发生在这个 形势 在实践中，区间删失问题通常是 由于没有适当的统计数据， 方法. 拟议研究的一个主要组成部分涉及开发 考虑区间删失的统计方法 结构的数据，并适合于艾滋病的分析 临床试验 艾滋病队列随访研究通常用于 获得有关艾滋病潜伏期的知识， 了解艾滋病的发病过程以及艾滋病毒和艾滋病 流行病 在这种情况下，区间删失发生得更频繁， 它的结构比艾滋病的临床 审判 拟议的研究将评估和开发现有的和新的 统计方法，分别用于推断艾滋病潜伏期 基于区间删失数据的时间。 它还将制定指导方针 为了更有效和精确地估计艾滋病的分布， 孵育时间 对艾滋病监测数据的分析不断 开展的活动，以监测艾滋病毒和艾滋病的流行， 向美国政府提供必要信息， 施政纲要而在这种情况下，分析必须解决两个间隔- 同时审查和报告延迟问题。 一个部件 一个简单的研究涉及开发一个简单的， 推断艾滋病患者生存时间的实用统计方法 根据艾滋病监测数据和指南， 估计艾滋病毒流行率和预测未来艾滋病发病率。

The purpose of this proposal is to address the statistical issues related to and to develop statistical methods for the analysis of interval-censored data arising from AIDS studies. Such studies play an essential role in AIDS treatment development, the understanding of AIDS epidemic and the process of health-related policy-making. AIDS clinical trial is a key component of the development of AIDS treatments and the interval-censoring problem frequently occurs in this situation. In practice, the interval-censoring problem is usually simplified due to the unavailability of the appropriate statistical methods. A major component of the proposed research involves developing statistical methods that take into account the interval-censoring structure of the data and are appropriate for the analysis of AIDS clinical trials. AIDS cohort follow-up studies are commonly used to obtain the knowledge about AIDS incubation time, which is important in understanding both the process of AIDS disease and HIV and AIDS epidemics. In this case, the interval-censoring occurs more often and has a much more complicated structure than in the case of AIDS clinical trials. The proposed research will assess and develop existing and new statistical methods, respectively, for inference about AIDS incubation time based on interval-censored data. It will also develop guidelines for more efficient and precise estimation of the distribution of AIDS incubation time. The analysis of AIDS surveillance data is constantly conducted in order to monitor HIV and AIDS epidemics and provide essential information to the US Government to make health-related policies. In this situation, the analysis must address both interval- censoring and reporting delay problems simultaneously. One component of the proposed research concerns the development of a simple and practical statistical method for inference about AIDS survival time based on AIDS surveillance data and the guidelines for more accurate estimation of HIV prevalences and projections of future AIDS incidences.