Manufacturing Competitiveness in Times of China: Evidence from South Africa.

在发展中国家的学术和政策辩论中，与日益增加的南南贸易和全球价值链（GVCs）一体化相关的机遇和挑战已经占据了中心位置。考虑到自上世纪90年代中期以来中国在全球制造业中所占份额的大幅增长，以及自本世纪头十年中期以来中国出口产品的国内附加值含量不断上升，中国在这些讨论中显得尤为突出。中国商业影响力的急剧扩大，以及中国沿着全球价值链从全球组装商升级为零部件供应商和系统集成商，甚至在一些先进制造业领域也是如此，这引发了有关中国对世界其他地区影响的重要问题。对于许多被困在中等收入水平、经历过早去工业化和贸易失衡恶化的国家来说，情况尤其如此。本研究采用结构演化的方法，试图了解当前全球化背景，特别是中国的崛起，在多大程度上改变了中等收入经济体的目标，加剧了它们向高收入国家过渡所面临的挑战。这个广泛的研究问题是在南非这样一个表现不佳的中等收入国家的背景下进行的，在种族隔离结束后，南非日益融入全球经济，特别是来自中国的进口竞争不断加剧，与严重的失业、糟糕的增长表现、去工业化动态、国内经济结构升级方面的严峻挑战密切相关。本文的实证部分由三个独立的章节组成，每个章节都采用不同的方法来探讨中国的崛起在过去二十年中对南非制造商业绩的影响。在第一章实证中，我分析了中国进口渗透对企业绩效的影响，考虑了国内公司技术和生产能力的中介作用。具体而言，我使用了一个独特的企业层面数据库（2010-2017），研究了中国进口渗透对制造业企业绩效的影响——直接和间接（例如，通过国内价值链上的投入产出联系），以及相对更密集地投资于能力发展的企业是否更能抵御这种竞争压力。本章采用AQMs（高级计量经济学与I-O分析相结合）。在第二章实证中，我研究了中国不断增长的中高科技制造业产品出口在多大程度上取代或补充了南非在第三进口市场的出口。使用2000年至2018年非常详细的协调制度产品级数据，我估计了南非和中国对这些南非商品最相关进口商的中高科技出口的增强重力模型方程。为了补充上述工作，在第三实证章中，我实证地调查了南非作为采矿相关设备生产和创新的战略地点不断被边缘化背后的主要原因，尽管其国内供应商基础具有强大的技术能力。通过分析占主导地位的跨国公司和强大的新兴中国参与者在塑造全球采矿机械行业治理结构方面的作用，本章强调了南非公司在试图从升级中获取价值并巩固其竞争地位（从本地转向全球）时所面临的非技术性质的障碍。2019年1月至6月期间，通过对南非公司、行业协会和相关机构的代表进行49次访谈，收集了主要数据。

The opportunities and challenges associated with increasing South-South trade and global value chain (GVCs) integration have gained centre-stage in the academic and policy debate across developing countries. China looms large in these discussions, given the massive gains in its world manufacturing share since the mid-1990s, and the increasing domestic value-added content of its exports since the mid-2000s. The dramatic expansion in Chinese commercial weight, and the country's upgrading from global assembler to parts provider and system integrator along GVCs, even in some advanced manufacturing sectors, opens up important questions on its impact on the rest of the world. This is particularly the case for many countries trapped in their middle-income status, experiencing premature deindustrialisation and deteriorating trade imbalances. Informed by a structural-evolutionary approach, this research tries to understand to what extent the current globalisation context, particularly the rise of China, shifts the goal posts for middle-income economies, heightening the challenges they face in their transition to high-income status. This broad research question is operationalised within the context of an underperforming middle-income country such as South Africa, where the increasing integration into the global economy after the end of the apartheid, and particularly the ongoing intensification of import competition from China, has gone hand-in-hand with severe unemployment, poor growth performances, deindustrialisation dynamics, serious challenges in upgrading the domestic economic structure. The empirical section of the thesis consists of three independent chapters, each of which takes a distinct approach to explore the effects of the rise of China on the performances of South African manufacturers over the past two decades.In the first empirical chapter, I analyse the impact of Chinese import penetration on firms' performances, taking into account the mediating role of technology and production capabilities of domestic companies. Specifically, using a unique firm-level database (2010-2017), I study the impact of Chinese import penetration - both direct and indirect (e.g. through input-output linkages along the domestic value chain) - on the performances of manufacturing firms, and whether firms investing relatively more intensively in capabilities' development are more resilient to such competitive pressure. This chapter employs AQMs (advanced econometrics combined with I-O analysis).In the second empirical chapter, I investigate the extent to which increasing Chinese exports of medium- to high-tech manufacturing products have displaced or complemented South African ones in third importing markets. Using highly detailed Harmonized System product-level data from 2000 to 2018, I estimate an augmented gravity model equation on South African and Chinese medium- to high-tech exports to the most relevant importers of these South African goods.To complement the exercises above, in the third empirical chapter, I empirically investigate the main reasons behind the ongoing marginalisation of South Africa as a strategic location for production and innovation of mining-related equipment, despite the strong technological capabilities of its domestic supplier base. By analysing the role of dominant multinational incumbent firms and powerful emerging Chinese actors in shaping the governance structures of the global mining machinery industry, the chapter highlights the non-technological nature of the barriers facing South African firms in their attempt to capture value from upgrading, and to consolidate their competitive position, moving from local to global. Primary data has been gathered through 49 interviews conducted with representatives from companies, industry associations and relevant institutions in South Africa, between January and June 2019.