Temporal and spatial patterns of shoreline change and exposure of coastal communities and ecosystems to future flood systems

该项目将涉及综合大量环境数据集，从历史档案(包括航空摄影、历史和当代地图和现场实地调查)到近实时海洋学数据和新可用的卫星图像(包括哥白尼哨兵2号图像)，以建立英格兰东部北诺福克45公里长的屏障海岸线海岸线变化的时间和空间模式。它将探索地貌变化的各个方面，包括风暴事件的海岸线恢复、长期屏障动力学、泥沙收支平衡计算、冲刷和突破事件以及风暴潮事件。将这些方面结合起来，将有助于全面了解北诺福克沿海系统及其如何因应未来自然驱动因素(如海平面上升和风暴)的变化而发生变化。这项研究将包括开发海岸线响应模型及其与风暴潮模型的耦合，以探索近期的海岸线位置；这将对沿海的风险管理产生影响，并将具体参照对生态系统的影响进行探讨。此外，该项目将通过使用社会经济脆弱性指标，将物理模拟与环境危害模拟结合起来，以确定对沿海社区和基础设施近期风险的新评估。可视化技术将被用作向广泛的沿海管理人员和决策者传达项目成果的一部分。

The project will involve the synthesis of a large number of environmental datasets, from historical archives (including aerial photography, historical and contemporary maps and in-situ field survey) to near real-time oceanographic data and newly available satellite imagery (including Copernicus Sentinel-2 imagery), to establish the temporal and spatial patterning of shoreline change on the 45 km-long barrier coastline of North Norfolk, eastern England. It will explore various aspects of geomorphological change including shoreline recovery from storm events, long term barrier dynamics, sediment budget calculations, washover and breakthrough occurrence and storm surge events. Bringing together these aspects will help to develop a comprehensive understanding of the North Norfolk coastal system and how it could change in response to future changes in natural drivers (such as sea level rise and storminess). The research will include the development of shoreline response models, and their coupling to storm surge models, to explore near-future shoreline positions; this will have implications for risk management at the coast and this will be explored with specific reference to impacts on ecosystems. In addition, the project will integrate the physical modelling with environmental hazard modelling, through the use of indicators of socio-economic vulnerability, to define new assessments of near-future risks to coastal communities and infrastructure. Visualisation techniques will be used as part of the communication of project results to a wide range of coastal managers and decision makers.