Temporal and spatial patterns of shoreline change and exposure of coastal communities and ecosystems to future flood systems

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The project will involve the synthesis of a large number of environmental datasets, from historical archives (including aerial photography, historical and contemporary maps and in-situ field survey) to near real-time oceanographic data and newly available satellite imagery (including Copernicus Sentinel-2 imagery), to establish the temporal and spatial patterning of shoreline change on the 45 km-long barrier coastline of North Norfolk, eastern England. It will explore various aspects of geomorphological change including shoreline recovery from storm events, long term barrier dynamics, sediment budget calculations, washover and breakthrough occurrence and storm surge events. Bringing together these aspects will help to develop a comprehensive understanding of the North Norfolk coastal system and how it could change in response to future changes in natural drivers (such as sea level rise and storminess). The research will include the development of shoreline response models, and their coupling to storm surge models, to explore near-future shoreline positions; this will have implications for risk management at the coast and this will be explored with specific reference to impacts on ecosystems. In addition, the project will integrate the physical modelling with environmental hazard modelling, through the use of indicators of socio-economic vulnerability, to define new assessments of near-future risks to coastal communities and infrastructure. Visualisation techniques will be used as part of the communication of project results to a wide range of coastal managers and decision makers.