REDD+ as an area-based policy: evidence from the 2011 Moratorium on oil palm, timber and logging concessions in Indonesia

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The 2011 Moratorium on new oil palm, timber and logging concessionsin primary forests and peatlands is an area-based policy, which wasimplemented in Indonesia to scale up efforts to reduce emissions fromdeforestation and forest degradation (REDD+). Using quasiexperimentalmethods and satellite fire observations, this paperevaluates the extent to which the policy was effective in preventing theoccurrence of fire, typically used to clear forests in preparation for newconcessions. We find that the effect of the Moratorium is negligiblewhen considering global changes in fire regimes from 2006-2011 to2011-2016. Pre-existing concessions for oil palm and timberconcessions perform significantly worse than areas included in theMoratorium. Conversely, logging concessions perform significantlybetter. While a potential claim for the inclusion of logged andsecondary forests in the Moratorium area is valid, we argue thatpolitical factors have to be considered when designing conservation policy in Indonesia