The changing role of personal mobility

个人出行的角色变化

• 批准号: 2104423
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Imperial College London
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2018 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2104423
• 关键词: changing; role; personal; mobility

In the last decade, we have seen the emergence (and in some cases the resurgence) of different forms of private transport. Car-sharing, carpooling, and ride hailing services are now commonplace in developed countries and have rapidly increased in popularity since their inception (Goldman Sachs, 2017). Ride-hailing services like Uber and Didi have eclipsed taxi transport in some cities like San Francisco and are forecasted to generate global revenue of $285bn ($36bn 2016) by 2030 (Goldman Sachs, 2017). Car sharing services are forecast to experience more modest but nevertheless also rapid growth with 36 million members (7 million 2015) in 2025 (Frost & Sullivan, 2016). Consequently, we have seen the classical vehicle ownership model increase in flexibility to cater for those who favour access over ownership. This new emergent market has undoubtedly begun to take root in the developed world and has led to many major car manufacturers to position themselves to become shared-mobility service operators (Toyota, Daimler, BMW). This research aims to address the impact of these changes on personal mobility, private travel, and mobility characteristics such as car ownership.Research QuestionThis project has two main aims:1. Develop and understanding of how the structure and perception of private transport has changed over time(a) Understand individual travellers' perceptions of private transport, and how and if they will change(b) Understand the underlying motives behind private vehicle ownership and whether they can be replaced, substituted, or are subject to change(c) Identify any correlations between changing perceptions and mobility characteristics such as vehicle ownership, car use and market share for the car.2. Develop an understanding of how this change will translate with regards to trip patterns and travel behaviour(a) Identify how this new structure of private transport fits into the wider transport system and what role it will play in society and industry.(b) Identify the impact on trip patterns and travel behaviour due to a new system and changing perceptions of private transport and personal mobility.(c) Compare and critically analyse current models and understanding of personal mobility and travel; and analyse their suitability.ApproachThe study will utilise a quantitative approach making use of existing travel demand modelling, and statistical modelling toolsets to quantify the aforementioned impacts and possibly develop a car ownership model. Data gathering will involve the consultation of existing data sources such as the NTS and TFL travel surveys, alongside primary data collected through surveys.Furthermore, this research will also possibly make use of qualitative research methods and subsequently utilise a hybrid "quantitative-qualitative" approach to inform the methodology; and validate and extend the research findings. Novel ContentThis project aims to take steps towards achieving a greater understanding of personal mobility and consequently, current approaches toward travel demand modelling - which is central to infrastructure and land use planning. Current literature on the changes in the structure of private transport focus on car sharing, ride hailing and carpooling; however literature on the overarching effect of these new modes on personal mobility, traveller perceptions, and traveller characteristics is unexplored. This research fits best into the following research areas in priority order: Infrastructure and urban systems, Engineering Design, Digital Content (Theme)

在过去的十年里，我们看到了不同形式的私人交通工具的出现(在某些情况下还卷土重来)。拼车、拼车和叫车服务现在在发达国家很常见，自问世以来迅速受到欢迎(高盛，2017)。在旧金山等一些城市，优步和滴滴等叫车服务已经让出租车运输黯然失色，预计到2030年，全球收入将达到2850亿美元(2016年为360亿美元)(高盛2017年)。汽车共享服务预计将经历较为温和的增长，但也将快速增长，到2025年将达到3600万会员(2015年为700万)(Frost&Sullivan，2016)。因此，我们看到经典的车辆拥有模式在灵活性上增加了，以迎合那些更喜欢获得而不是拥有的人。这个新的新兴市场无疑已经开始在发达国家扎根，并导致许多主要汽车制造商将自己定位为共享移动服务运营商(丰田、戴姆勒、宝马)。这项研究旨在解决这些变化对个人机动性、私人旅行和机动性特征(如拥有汽车)的影响。研究问题本项目有两个主要目标：1.发展和了解私人交通工具的结构和感知如何随着时间的推移而变化(A)了解个人旅行者对私人交通工具的感知，以及他们将如何以及是否会改变(B)了解私家车拥有背后的潜在动机，以及它们是否可以被取代或受到变化的影响(C)确定观念的变化与汽车的机动性特征(如车辆所有权、汽车使用和市场份额)之间的任何关联。了解这一变化将如何转化为出行模式和出行行为：(A)确定这种新的私人交通工具结构如何适应更广泛的交通系统，以及它将在社会和行业中发挥什么作用。(B)确定新系统以及对私人交通工具和个人机动性的看法变化对出行模式和出行行为的影响。(C)比较和批判性分析当前的模型和对个人流动性和出行的理解；并分析它们的适宜性。方法研究将使用量化方法，利用现有的出行需求建模和统计建模工具来量化上述影响，并可能开发汽车拥有模型。数据收集将包括咨询现有的数据来源，如NTS和TFL旅行调查，以及通过调查收集的基本数据。此外，这项研究还可能利用定性研究方法，随后使用混合的“定量-定性”方法来提供信息；并验证和扩展研究结果。新内容本项目旨在采取步骤，更好地了解个人的机动性，从而更好地了解目前对旅行需求建模的方法--这是基础设施和土地利用规划的核心。目前关于私人交通工具结构变化的文献主要集中在汽车共享、叫车和拼车上，但关于这些新模式对个人机动性、旅行者感知和旅行者特征的总体影响的文献尚未探索。这项研究按优先顺序最适合以下研究领域：基础设施和城市系统、工程设计、数字内容(主题)