DEVELOPMENT OF DEMOGRAPHIC AND STATISTICAL METHODS

人口统计学和统计方法的发展

• 批准号: 6563279
• 负责人: Kenneth G. Manton
• 金额: $ 17.85万
• 依托单位: DUKE UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2002
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2002-02-01 至 2002-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/6563279
• 关键词: Drosophilidae; animal mortality; data collection methodology /evaluation; genetic susceptibility; human data; human mortality; longevity; mathematical model; model design /development; statistics /biometry

Abstract: DESCRIPTION: (adapted from the application): The project focuses on the development, and applications, of models and estimation procedures to analyze human survival at late ages in longitudinal and survival data for biologically related and unrelated individuals as well as survival data obtained in stress experiments with laboratory insects. The central idea which unifies the approaches is associated with the concept of hidden frailty. This idea will be further developed to analyse the effects of genetic and environmental influence on mortality and longevity using models of correlated fixed frailty, quadratic hazard models, models of changing frailty, and models of lpartly observed correlated health histories. Frailty models will also be developed to separate the effects of hormesis and heterogeneity in survival data. The methods will be applied to survival data from the Danish Twin Registry (DTR), the Longitudinal Studies of Aging in Danish Twins (LSADT) (collected in project 2), the 1982-1994 National Long Term Care Surveys (NLTCS; available at DU) and to data from stress-experiments on laboratory insects done in project 4. Five specific aims will be addressed: (1) Estimate the genetic contribution to individual susceptibility to disease and death using proportional hazard frailty models applied to DTR data; (2) Estimate the genetic contribution to individual susceptability to disease and death using the bivariate quadratic hazard model applied to DTR dam; (3) Evaluate current trends in disability and chronic conditions by estimating parameters of individual health histories in selected cohorts of NLTCS and LSADT data; (4) Evaluate the/nfiuence of genetic and environmental factors on disability, morbidity, and mortaity in DTR and LSADT data; (5) Evaluate the effects of hormesis and heterogeneity in the analysis of stress-experiment data on populations of Drosoinvestigatorzila melanogaster.

摘要：描述：（从应用程序改编）：该项目着重于模型和估计程序的开发和应用，以分析后期的人类生存，用于生物学相关和无关的个体的纵向和生存数据，以及在使用实验室昆虫的压力实验中获得的生存数据。统一方法的核心思想与隐藏脆弱的概念有关。将进一步发展这个想法，以分析使用相关固定脆弱，二次危害模型，变化脆弱的模型以及Lpartly观察到的相关健康历史模型的模型，分析遗传和环境对死亡率和寿命的影响。 还将开发脆弱的模型，以分离生存数据中的荷尔特和异质性的影响。该方法将应用于丹麦双胞胎注册表（DTR），丹麦双胞胎（LSADT）（在项目2中收集），1982 - 1994年的国家长期护理监测（NLTCS；在DU上获得）的国家长期护理调查（DU）的纵向研究（LSADT）的纵向研究，以及针对实验室昆虫的遗传（五个特定于项目）。使用适用于DTR数据的比例危险模型对疾病和死亡的敏感性； （2）使用应用于DTR DAM的双变量二次危险模型估算对疾病和死亡的个体易接受能力的遗传贡献； （3）通过估计NLTC和LSADT数据选定同类群体中个体健康历史的参数来评估残疾和慢性病的当前趋势； （4）评估DTR和LSADT数据中残疾，发病率和抵押性的遗传和环境因素的/NFIES/NFIENIS/NFIES/NFIENIS； （5）评估激素和异质性在分析应力 - 实验数据对drosoinvestigatorzila melanogaster种群的影响。