Health costs of aging--Present & future trends

老龄化带来的健康成本——现在

• 批准号: 6659955
• 负责人: CHRISTOPHER J.L. MURRAY
• 金额: $ 18.05万
• 依托单位: HARVARD SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2002
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2002-09-15 至 2003-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/6659955
• 关键词: aging; data collection methodology /evaluation; epidemiology; health care cost /financing; human data; socioeconomics

Health Costs of Aging: Present and Future Trends: This sub-component aims to introduce direct costs of care into the discussion of the population impact of diseases. In developing countries, data sets from national insurance schemes are not available and it will first be necessary to develop methods for data collection for data collection. The long-term goal is to build an information base showing country variations in the direct costs of aging, but the short run goals are to: 1. estimate the expenditure on health care on people over 65, and the proportion of total national health care expenditures on people over 65, in 7 developing countries at various stages of the epidemiological and demographic transitions. 2. project these costs over time in the 7 countries using country level micro-level data on income elasticities of demand, and projections of changes in population size, structure, income and other socio-economic variables; 3. project these costs over time in the 7 countries based on estimating a multi country, multi time period model of the determinants in expenditure in people older than 65, and projections of population size and structure; 4. Undertake a validation study by comparing the predicted projected expenditures in selected OECD countries from a past baseline year using the two proposed methods- the cross-country age specific cost model, and the single country micro-level model. This cannot be done in the 7 developing countries due to a lack of histological data on these variables. 5. Devise a general method for estimating and predicting expenditures on health care on the population older than 65 years in lower-income countries.

老龄化的保健费用：现在和未来趋势：这一子组成部分的目的是在讨论疾病对人口的影响时引入护理的直接费用。在发展中国家，没有国家保险计划的数据集，因此首先需要为数据收集制定数据收集方法。长期目标是建立一个数据库，显示各国在老龄化直接成本方面的差异，但短期目标是：估计7个发展中国家在流行病学和人口转型的不同阶段对65岁以上人口的保健支出，以及65岁以上人口的保健支出占国家保健支出总额的比例。2. 利用关于需求的收入弹性的国家一级微观数据，以及对人口规模、结构、收入和其他社会经济变量的变化的预测，在7个国家预测这些成本随时间的变化；3. 根据对65岁以上老年人支出决定因素的多国、多时期模型的估计，以及对人口规模和结构的预测，对这7个国家的这些费用进行长期预测；4. 进行一项验证研究，使用两种拟议的方法- -跨国年龄特定成本模式和单一国家微观层面模式- -比较选定经合发组织国家过去基准年的预计支出。由于缺乏这些变量的组织学数据，在7个发展中国家无法做到这一点。5. 设计一种估计和预测低收入国家65岁以上人口保健支出的一般方法。