Health costs of aging--Present & future trends

老龄化的健康成本：现在和未来的趋势：这一次级构成部分的目的是在讨论疾病对人口的影响时引入直接护理费用。在发展中国家，没有来自国家保险计划的数据集，因此首先必须制定数据收集方法。长期目标是建立一个信息库，显示各国老龄化直接成本的差异，但短期目标是：1。估计7个发展中国家在流行病和人口结构转型的不同阶段用于65岁以上人口的保健支出，以及用于65岁以上人口的保健支出占国家保健支出总额的比例。2.利用国家一级关于需求收入弹性的微观数据，以及对人口规模、结构、收入和其他社会经济变量变化的预测，预测这7个国家在一段时间内的这些成本; 3.根据对65岁以上老年人支出决定因素的多国、多时期模型以及对人口规模和结构的预测，预测7个国家在一段时间内的这些成本; 4.利用两种拟议的方法-跨国年龄成本模式和单一国家微观模式-对选定的经合组织国家过去一个基准年的预测支出进行验证研究。由于缺乏这些变量的组织学数据，这在7个发展中国家无法完成。5.设计一种通用方法，用于估算和预测低收入国家65岁以上人口的医疗保健支出。

Health Costs of Aging: Present and Future Trends: This sub-component aims to introduce direct costs of care into the discussion of the population impact of diseases. In developing countries, data sets from national insurance schemes are not available and it will first be necessary to develop methods for data collection for data collection. The long-term goal is to build an information base showing country variations in the direct costs of aging, but the short run goals are to: 1. estimate the expenditure on health care on people over 65, and the proportion of total national health care expenditures on people over 65, in 7 developing countries at various stages of the epidemiological and demographic transitions. 2. project these costs over time in the 7 countries using country level micro-level data on income elasticities of demand, and projections of changes in population size, structure, income and other socio-economic variables; 3. project these costs over time in the 7 countries based on estimating a multi country, multi time period model of the determinants in expenditure in people older than 65, and projections of population size and structure; 4. Undertake a validation study by comparing the predicted projected expenditures in selected OECD countries from a past baseline year using the two proposed methods- the cross-country age specific cost model, and the single country micro-level model. This cannot be done in the 7 developing countries due to a lack of histological data on these variables. 5. Devise a general method for estimating and predicting expenditures on health care on the population older than 65 years in lower-income countries.