Health costs of aging--Present & future trends

老龄化的健康成本：当前和未来趋势：这一分部分旨在将直接护理成本引入疾病对人口的影响的讨论中。在发展中国家，没有来自国家保险计划的数据集，必须首先制定数据收集方法，以便收集数据。长期目标是建立一个信息库，显示各国在老龄化直接成本方面的差异，但短期目标是：1.估计7个发展中国家流行病和人口转型不同阶段65岁以上人群的保健支出，以及65岁以上人群的全国卫生保健总支出的比例。2.利用国家一级关于需求收入弹性的微观数据，以及人口规模、结构、收入和其他社会经济变量变化的预测，预测这7个国家随时间变化的这些成本；3.根据估计65岁以上人口支出决定因素的多国、多时期模型以及人口规模和结构预测，预测这7个国家的这些成本；4.利用两种拟议方法--跨国年龄特定成本模型和单一国家微观水平模型--比较选定的经合组织国家上一个基准年的预测支出，进行验证研究。由于缺乏关于这些变量的组织学数据，这7个发展中国家无法做到这一点。5.制定一种估算和预测低收入国家65岁以上人口保健支出的一般方法。

Health Costs of Aging: Present and Future Trends: This sub-component aims to introduce direct costs of care into the discussion of the population impact of diseases. In developing countries, data sets from national insurance schemes are not available and it will first be necessary to develop methods for data collection for data collection. The long-term goal is to build an information base showing country variations in the direct costs of aging, but the short run goals are to: 1. estimate the expenditure on health care on people over 65, and the proportion of total national health care expenditures on people over 65, in 7 developing countries at various stages of the epidemiological and demographic transitions. 2. project these costs over time in the 7 countries using country level micro-level data on income elasticities of demand, and projections of changes in population size, structure, income and other socio-economic variables; 3. project these costs over time in the 7 countries based on estimating a multi country, multi time period model of the determinants in expenditure in people older than 65, and projections of population size and structure; 4. Undertake a validation study by comparing the predicted projected expenditures in selected OECD countries from a past baseline year using the two proposed methods- the cross-country age specific cost model, and the single country micro-level model. This cannot be done in the 7 developing countries due to a lack of histological data on these variables. 5. Devise a general method for estimating and predicting expenditures on health care on the population older than 65 years in lower-income countries.