Seamless seasonal to sub seasonal forecasts of flood risk analysis using Global Forecasting and Analysis System(GLOFAS) in Tana Basin Kenya

使用肯尼亚塔纳盆地全球预报和分析系统 (GLOFAS) 进行洪水风险分析的无缝季节到次季节预测

• 批准号: 2139797
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Sussex
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2018 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2139797
• 关键词: Seamless; seasonal; sub; forecasts; flood

Tana River which is a 1000 Kilometres and being the longest river in Kenya flows through asemi arid and arid region of Kenya. It has may tributaries which includes Thika Riveroriginates from Mt. Kenya and Aberdares Range water towers and flows eastwards via Isiolocounty and then turns south-east before it drains into Indian Ocean. despite the fact thatthe river provides livelihoods to the surrounding communities, it normally faces some ofthe extremes weather/climate events such as drought and flooding events.At the end of this PhD research, it is expected that the uptake of flood forecasts by thelocal population will have improved and calamities resulting from flood vents will bereduced as well as address the factors that hinders the dissemination of the relevantflood information identified and addressed.Objectives of this research will be to(i) Evaluate the predictability of flood events a seamless lead times of days to months(ii) Explore the potential application of scientific information in potential ForecastBased Action for flood preparedness initiativeThe research will be conducted in the context of , and will be cognizant of the operationof flood risk management and preparedness in the study basin

塔纳河是肯尼亚最长的河流，全长1000公里，流经肯尼亚的阿塞米干旱和干旱地区。它有五条支流，其中包括蒂卡河，发源于Mt。肯尼亚和阿伯达雷斯山脉的水塔向东流经伊西奥洛县，然后转向东南，最后流入印度洋。尽管这条河为周围的社区提供了生计，但它通常会面临一些极端的天气/气候事件，如干旱和洪水事件。在这项博士研究的最后，预计当地居民对洪水预报的接受程度将有所提高，洪水喷口造成的灾害将减少，并解决阻碍相关洪水信息传播的因素确定并解决。本研究的目标是（i）在几天到几个月的无缝提前时间内评估洪水事件的可预测性（ii）探索科学信息在潜在的基于预测的洪水准备行动中的潜在应用该研究将在研究流域洪水风险管理和准备的背景下进行，并认识到研究流域洪水风险管理和准备的运作