Seamless seasonal to sub seasonal forecasts of flood risk analysis using Global Forecasting and Analysis System(GLOFAS) in Tana Basin Kenya

塔纳河全长1000公里，是肯尼亚最长的河流，流经肯尼亚阿西米干旱和干旱地区。它有五条支流，其中包括发源于山上的锡卡河。肯尼亚和阿伯代尔山脉的水塔和水流向东流经Isiolocounty，然后转向东南，最后流入印度洋。尽管河流为周围社区提供了生计，但它通常面临一些极端的天气/气候事件，如干旱和洪水事件。在这项博士研究结束时，预计当地居民对洪水预报的接受将得到改善，洪水喷口造成的灾害将减少，并解决阻碍已确定和解决的相关洪水信息传播的因素。这项研究的目标将是(I)评估洪水事件的可预测性，从几天到几个月的无缝提前期(Ii)探索科学信息在潜在的基于预报的防洪行动倡议中的潜在应用。这项研究将在以下背景下进行：并将认识到研究流域洪水风险管理和准备的运作情况

Tana River which is a 1000 Kilometres and being the longest river in Kenya flows through asemi arid and arid region of Kenya. It has may tributaries which includes Thika Riveroriginates from Mt. Kenya and Aberdares Range water towers and flows eastwards via Isiolocounty and then turns south-east before it drains into Indian Ocean. despite the fact thatthe river provides livelihoods to the surrounding communities, it normally faces some ofthe extremes weather/climate events such as drought and flooding events.At the end of this PhD research, it is expected that the uptake of flood forecasts by thelocal population will have improved and calamities resulting from flood vents will bereduced as well as address the factors that hinders the dissemination of the relevantflood information identified and addressed.Objectives of this research will be to(i) Evaluate the predictability of flood events a seamless lead times of days to months(ii) Explore the potential application of scientific information in potential ForecastBased Action for flood preparedness initiativeThe research will be conducted in the context of , and will be cognizant of the operationof flood risk management and preparedness in the study basin