Collaborative Research: Identifying Model Biases in Poleward Heat Transport--Atmosphere-Ocean Partitioning, Trends over the Historical Period and Sub-Seasonal Variability

合作研究：识别向极热传输的模型偏差——大气-海洋划分、历史时期的趋势和次季节变化

• 批准号: 2311541
• 负责人: Nicole Feldl
• 金额: $ 7.15万
• 依托单位: University of California-Santa Cruz
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-08-15 至 2026-07-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2311541&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Identifying; Model; Biases

Winds in the atmosphere and currents in the ocean move heat from the equator to the pole thereby moderating temperatures over Earth’s surface. In the absence of poleward heat transport, the tropics would be uninhabitably warm and sea ice would cover nearly half the planet. Future changes in poleward heat transport rely on coupled (atmosphere/ocean) climate model simulations and have substantial impacts on the spatial structure of projected temperature changes. This project will evaluate if state-of-the-art climate models adequately represent key physical processes responsible for poleward heat transport. Research will be pursued through a model-observation comparison of poleward heat transport at three observable timescales. First, at climatological (long-term averages) timescales the partitioning of poleward heat transport between the atmosphere and ocean will be compared in models and observations. Second, the model simulated long-term trends in poleward heat transport over the last 40 years will be compared to the observational record. Last, the investigators will assess if climate models adequately represent the daily variability of atmospheric heat transport responsible for heat waves. The project will serve a platform for training undergraduate and graduate students and involve outreach activities at local venues.The project will improve the physics of climate models by identifying model biases in the processes responsible for the global scale movement of heat through the climate system at observable timescales. These same physical processes in climate models govern future long-term temperature change and variability with substantial human impact. Additionally, the atmospheric motions that move energy through the climate system also move moisture and, thus, the project results will also improve future predictions of rain and snowfall changes. Lastly, the project directly addresses if models adequately represent the atmospheric processes responsible for heat waves. Identifying model biases in the underlying causes of heatwaves will lead to improved predictions of regional heatwave intensity changes in a warming world. In addition to training undergraduate and graduate students, the investigators will perform public outreach on project-related science concepts to engender enthusiasm amongst younger generations and raise awareness of climate research among the general public.This project is jointly funded by the Climate and Large-Scale Dynamics Program and Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences to support projects that increase research capabilities, capacity and infrastructure at a wide variety of institution types, as outlined in the GEO EMBRACE DCL.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

大气中的风和海洋中的洋流将热量从赤道输送到极点，从而缓和了地球表面的温度。如果没有向极地的热量输送，热带地区将变得无法居住，海冰将覆盖近一半的地球。极地热量输送的未来变化依赖于耦合的(大气/海洋)气候模式模拟，并对预测的温度变化的空间结构产生重大影响。该项目将评估最先进的气候模型是否足以代表负责向极地热量输送的关键物理过程。研究将通过在三个可观测的时间尺度上对极地热量传输的模型观测比较来进行。首先，在气候学(长期平均)时间尺度上，将在模式和观测中比较极地热量输送在大气和海洋之间的分配。其次，模拟了过去40年向极地热量输送的长期趋势的模型将与观测记录进行比较。最后，研究人员将评估气候模型是否足以反映导致热浪的大气热传输的每日可变性。该项目将为培训本科生和研究生提供一个平台，并在当地开展外联活动。该项目将通过确定在可观察到的时间尺度上全球范围内热量通过气候系统移动的过程中的模型偏差来改进气候模型的物理学。气候模型中的这些相同的物理过程控制着未来长期的温度变化和可变性，并对人类产生重大影响。此外，通过气候系统传输能量的大气运动也会传输水分，因此，该项目的结果也将改善对未来降雨和降雪变化的预测。最后，该项目直接讨论模型是否能充分代表导致热浪的大气过程。识别热浪根本原因的模型偏差将有助于改进对全球变暖中地区性热浪强度变化的预测。除了培训本科生和研究生外，研究人员还将就与项目相关的科学概念进行公开宣传，以激发年轻一代的热情，并提高公众对气候研究的认识。该项目由气候和大型动力学计划以及大气和地球空间科学部门联合资助，以支持提高各种机构类型的研究能力、能力和基础设施的项目，如地球观测组织拥抱DCL所述。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。