Understanding the factors that led to the Brexit vote

了解导致英国脱欧公投的因素

• 批准号: 2260944
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Oxford
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2019 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2260944
• 关键词: Understanding; factors; led; Brexit; vote

Inequality has increased considerably in the UK during the last several decades (World Inequality Database, 2018). This increase matters because societies with high inequality also have low levels of social mobility (Jerrim and Macmillan, 2013). Thus, it is not a surprise that social mobility in the UK is found to have fallen over time (Gregg et al., 2017). In the literature, social mobility is usually approximated by the intergenerational elasticity of income (IGE) (Blanden et al, 2002). This measure can be interpreted as the increase in children's income following from an additional 1£ of parental income. Higher values of IGE indicate a greater importance of parental income for determining children's income and so lower social mobility. However, most research on IGE in the UK has focused on estimating national rates of IGE rather than regional rates due to the lack of appropriate datasets. The only paper exploring regional IGE in the UK focuses on Government Regions rather than smaller administrative units such as Local Authorities and finds significant differences across regions (Friedman and Macmillan, 2017). In my doctoral research I would like to estimate IGE on a lower administrative unit such as LA.I will overcome the data constraints by employing a multilevel model with random effects which is specifically efficient when applied to small sample sizes (Gelman and Hill, 2007). My estimates of IGE not only contribute to the literature on intergenerational mobility but also have two further benefits. Firstly, they provide an alternative to the Social Mobility Index employed by Whitehall to select social mobility coldspots which are LA with few economic opportunities and in which the government invest significantly to turn them into Opportunity Areas. However, Andrews et al (2017) has shown that the Index does not capture accurately the most disadvantaged LA. My estimates will provide an alternative measure which evaluates more precisely the economic opportunities in LAs.Secondly, these estimates can contribute to our understanding of the factors that led to the Brexit vote. Becker et al (2017) have suggested that inadequate economic prospects in local labour markets have led to many people feeling 'left-behind' and so voting for Brexit. However, most research so far has focused on different proxies for local economic conditions such as education opportunities (Fetzer, 2017). In my doctoral dissertation, I will present a broader measure of local opportunities, allowing a deeper understanding of the factors that led to Brexit.

在过去的几十年里，英国的不平等现象大幅增加（世界不平等数据库，2018年）。这一增长很重要，因为高度不平等的社会也有较低的社会流动性（Jerrim和Macmillan，2013年）。因此，英国的社会流动性随着时间的推移而下降并不奇怪（Gregg et al.，2017年）。在文献中，社会流动性通常近似于代际收入弹性（IGE）（Blanden et al，2002）。这一措施可以解释为父母收入增加1英镑后子女的收入增加。IGE值越高，表明父母收入在决定子女收入方面的重要性越大，因此社会流动性越低。然而，由于缺乏适当的数据集，大多数关于英国IGE的研究都集中在估计全国IGE的比率，而不是区域比率。唯一探讨英国区域IGE的论文集中在政府区域，而不是较小的行政单位，如地方当局，并发现各地区之间存在显着差异（Friedman和Macmillan，2017）。在我的博士研究中，我想估计一个较低的行政单位，如洛杉矶的IGE。我将克服数据约束，采用随机效应的多层次模型，这是特别有效的，当应用于小样本量（赫尔曼和希尔，2007年）。我对IGE的估计不仅有助于代际流动的文献，而且还有两个进一步的好处。首先，他们提供了一个替代白厅采用的社会流动指数，以选择社会流动冷点，这些冷点是洛杉矶的经济机会很少，政府投资显着，把它们变成机会区。然而，Andrews等人（2017）表明，该指数无法准确捕捉最弱势的LA。我的估计将提供一个替代措施，更准确地评估在洛杉矶的经济机会。其次，这些估计可以帮助我们了解的因素，导致英国脱欧投票。Becker et al（2017）认为，当地劳动力市场的经济前景不佳导致许多人感到“落后”，因此投票支持英国退欧。然而，到目前为止，大多数研究都集中在教育机会等当地经济条件的不同代理上（Fetzer，2017）。在我的博士论文中，我将提出一个更广泛的衡量当地机会的方法，从而更深入地了解导致英国退欧的因素。