Global Solutions for the Climate Crisis: Novel Metrics, Models, and Mechanisms (upd 03/24)

气候危机的全球解决方案：新指标、模型和机制（03/24 更新）

• 批准号: 2261375
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Bath
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2019 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2261375
• 关键词: Global; Solutions; Climate; Crisis; Novel

Climate change is "one of the greatest challenges of our time." The need for concerted effort to tackle this has been internationally recognised but remains unachieved. In spite of evidence of acceptance of both anthropogenic global warming and also the need for individuals to change their consumption patterns the pressure on governments to act has so far been insufficiently strong to overcome the economic desire to increase growth.Individuals' attitudes to sustainability are therefore very important, both for the effect they have on influencing firms' plans for green products, and also to drive governments towards policies which will accelerate the transition. There is also a third effect - that of creating a social norm. It has been shown that individuals are strongly influenced by their perception of social descriptive. Much depends then on these attitudes.This project proposes a bottom-up approach to environmental sustainability by integrating psychology theories into behavioural economics models of consumption choice. By examining how green attitudes influence individuals' decision making, I hope to be able to characterise outcomes based on factors such as the strength of social interactions. We know anecdotally that debate on climate change and green lifestyles tends to be dominated by extreme views. This project will allow us to make predictions about the emergence and convergence of green attitudes across society, leading to interventions that can encourage greener consumption and thus directly tackle global warming. This research will construct a discrete choice model of consumption decision in which individuals may decide between green and non-green lifestyles. The model will be adapted to include a variety of psychology-based motives, such as the "warm glow" introduced by Andreoni and the observance of social norms. The dynamics of the resulting model will be analysed using the technique for handling social interactions as laid out by Brock and Durlauf.This model will then be tested experimentally. An important element of the model being examined is how social norms affect individuals' attitudes, so I am proposing to perform two phases of experimentation. The first, on students, will allow for basic verification and modification of the model. A subsequent phase will be necessary in order to achieve sufficient diversity of initial lifestyles.The fraction of the population with green lifestyles is key. Increasing it has three effects. Firstly, it directly affects the formation of social descriptive norms. Cialdini summarises research showing that people are influenced towards an action in part based on their observation of that action by other people.Secondly, it has an effect on government increasing pressure in the direction of policies which may accelerate the transition (for example by giving tax incentives to firms to encourage green innovation, or to raise taxes on carbon-intensive products).Thirdly, it has an effect on firms. Microeconomic theory suggests that firms will adapt their product portfolios and marketing spend, to maximise their expected profits. However, if firms expect to see a significant reduction in profits then an equally rational response is to seek ways to delay any transition (for example using advertising to emphasise advantages of non-green products, or lobbying government to influence policy implementation). This research project will allow us to investigate the effect that a change in consumer lifestyles has on firms' responses. It is hoped that this will enable us to construct policies which maximise the chances of a successful sustainable transition and hence remove some of the obstacles on the path to addressing climate change.

气候变化是“我们这个时代最大的挑战之一。“国际社会已认识到需要共同努力解决这一问题，但仍未实现。尽管有证据表明，人们既接受人为的全球变暖，也接受个人需要改变其消费模式，但迄今为止，要求政府采取行动的压力还不足以克服促进增长的经济愿望，因此，个人对可持续性的态度非常重要，因为它们影响公司的绿色产品计划，并促使政府采取加速转型的政策。还有第三种效果--创造一种社会规范。它已经表明，个人的强烈影响，他们的社会描述性的看法。这个项目提出了一种自下而上的方法，通过将心理学理论融入消费选择的行为经济学模型来实现环境的可持续性。通过研究绿色态度如何影响个人的决策，我希望能够根据社会互动的强度等因素来确定结果。 我们知道，关于气候变化和绿色生活方式的辩论往往被极端观点所主导。这个项目将使我们能够预测整个社会绿色态度的出现和趋同，从而采取干预措施，鼓励更绿色的消费，从而直接应对全球变暖。本研究将建构一个消费决策的离散选择模式，其中个人可以在绿色与非绿色生活方式之间进行选择。该模型将进行调整，以包括各种基于心理学的动机，如安德烈奥尼介绍的“温暖的光芒”和遵守社会规范。将使用Brock和Durlauf提出的处理社会互动的技术来分析由此产生的模型的动力学，然后对该模型进行实验测试。这个模型的一个重要元素是社会规范如何影响个人的态度，所以我建议进行两个阶段的实验。第一个是关于学生的，将允许对模型进行基本验证和修改。为了实现初始生活方式的充分多样性，需要有一个后续阶段，关键是人口中拥有绿色生活方式的比例。增加它有三个效果。首先，它直接影响社会描述规范的形成。Cialdini总结的研究表明，人们对一项行动的影响，部分是基于他们对其他人行动的观察;其次，它对政府产生影响，增加政策方向上的压力，这可能会加速转型（例如，通过给予企业税收优惠，鼓励绿色创新，或提高碳密集型产品的税收）;第三，它对企业产生影响。微观经济学理论表明，企业将调整其产品组合和营销支出，以最大限度地提高其预期利润。然而，如果企业预计利润会大幅下降，那么同样理性的反应是寻求延迟转型的方法（例如，利用广告强调非绿色产品的优势，或游说政府影响政策的实施）。本研究项目将使我们能够调查消费者生活方式的变化对企业反应的影响。希望这将使我们能够制定政策，最大限度地提高成功可持续转型的机会，从而消除应对气候变化道路上的一些障碍。