The impact of demand side macroprudential policies on household indebtedness

自2008年危机以来，已经推出了若干政策工具。这些工具的新奇在于，它们没有收紧银行资本，而是直接增加了家庭负债。这些政策的目标是通过限制信贷增长来实现金融稳定。本研究的独特之处在于关注家庭而不是信贷总量。这些新政策直接影响到家庭，因为家庭比银行更具异质性。使用总体信贷数据隐含地假设所有家庭对这些政策的反应相同，这本质上意味着我们无法全面了解这些工具的影响。信贷登记簿包含每个合同的所有贷款水平信息（匿名）。利用这些登记册中尚未开发的潜力，将更好地了解这些政策如何影响信贷市场的分解。它可以揭示决定一个家庭是否退出信贷市场的定义特征，而不是简单地改变他们的信贷需求的家庭。该研究还旨在研究政策如何影响信贷市场和真实的经济。预计通过数据集的微观重点，可以更准确地估计对信贷增长的影响。在研究对真实的经济的影响时，本研究旨在使用分位数回归方法来捕捉影响的全方位。本研究将通过关注家庭来促进当前关于宏观审慎政策的讨论。

Since the 2008 crisis, several policy tools have been introduced. The novelty of many of these tools is that instead of tightening bank capital, they tacked household indebtedness directly. The goal of these policies is to achieve financial stability through limiting credit growth.The uniqueness of this research is focusing on households instead of on aggregate credit. The new policies impact households directly who are more heterogenous than banks. Using aggregate credit data implicitly assumes that all households react identically to these policies which inherently means we do not get the full picture of the impact of these tools.A credit register contains all loan level information for each contract (anonymised). Utilising the untapped potential in these registers will give a better understanding of how these policies impact the decomposition of the credit market. It allows to uncover the defining characteristics that determine whether a household drops out of the credit market as opposed to households that simply alter their credit demand.The research also aims to study how the policies impact the credit market and the real economy. It is expected that with the micro focus of the dataset a more accurate estimation of the impact on credit growth can be obtained. When studying the impact on the real economy the research aims to use a quantile regression approach to capture the full spectrum of effects.The research will contribute to the current discourse on macroprudential policy by having a household focus.