Dynamics and statistics of Leishmaniasis transmission

内脏利什曼病是一种寄生虫感染，每年造成2万多人死亡，主要发生在发展中国家。它涉及一种具有复杂生命周期的原生动物寄生虫，包括人类宿主和沙蝇载体。该疾病的成功传播依赖于一系列因素，并且众所周知难以预测（Miller et al. 2015）。最近结合随机过程和统计图像分析的数学研究（Doehl et al., 2017）表明，通过表征寄生虫异质性，可以确定关键的传播方式。描述寄生虫在媒介内动态的新数据指出，由生命阶段之间的非线性反馈引起的传播和病理变化（Serafim et al. 2018）。利用新的时间序列聚类技术（Catta-Pretta et al.，正在准备中），寄生虫生存的遗传机制正在得到阐明。该博士项目将综合这些最新进展，寻求优先考虑潜在的治疗或病媒控制干预措施。其核心将是制定和应用一个严格的疾病传播统计框架。约克大学是世界上研究这种被忽视的热带病的人数最多的大学之一。监督小组Pitchford和Powell在约克大学的利什曼病研究中以及与上述论文的主要作者有积极的研究联系。Miller， E.等人（2014）。埃塞俄比亚不同寄生虫浓度宿主对内脏利什曼病传播的定量贡献。热带病杂志，8(10),388 - 388。Doehl， J., Pitchford， J. W.等（2017）。内脏利什曼病中皮肤寄生虫景观决定宿主传染性。自然通讯8(1)。Serafim， T.等人（2018）。连续血餐促进利什曼原虫复制和逆转元胞生成，增强载体传染性。自然微生物学4(5)。卡塔-普雷塔，C，鲍威尔，b等人（准备中）。

Visceral Leishmaniasis is a parasitic infection which kills in excess of 20000 people each year, mainly in the developing world. It involves a protozoan parasite with a complex life cycle involving a human host and a sand fly vector.Successful transmission of the disease relies on a range of factors, and is notoriously hard to predict (Miller et al. 2015). Recent mathematical research combining stochastic processes and statistical image analysis (Doehl et al., 2017) has shown that, by characterizing parasite heterogeneity, the key mode of transmission can be identified. New data describing the dynamics of the parasite within the vector point to variability in transmission and pathology caused by nonlinear feedbacks between life stages (Serafim et al. 2018). The genetic mechanisms underpinning parasite survival are being elucidated using new time series clustering techniques (Catta-Pretta et al., in preparation).This PhD project will synthesise these recent advances, seeking to prioritise potential treatments or vector control interventions. At its heart will be development and application of a rigorous statistical framework for disease transmission.The University of York hosts one of the world's largest concentrations of researchers into this neglected tropical disease. The supervisory team, Pitchford and Powell, have active research links within Leishmaniasis research at the University of York, and with the main authors of the papers referred to.Miller, E. et al. (2014). Quantifying the Contribution of Hosts with Different Parasite Concentrations to the Transmission of Visceral Leishmaniasis in Ethiopia. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 8(10), e3288.Doehl, J., Pitchford, J. W. et al. (2017). Skin parasite landscape determines host infectiousness in visceral leishmaniasis. Nature Communications 8 (1).Serafim, T. et al. (2018). Sequential blood meals promote Leishmania replication and reverse metacyclogenesis augmenting vector infectivity. Nature Microbiology 4 (5).Catta-Pretta, C., Powell, B. et al. (in preparation).