Insights into climate change and reliability of GloSAT from integrating climate proxy, model and instrumental sources

气候指标不仅用于延长仪器时期之前的记录，而且在评估仪器记录本身方面也有价值(例如，全球趋势：Anderson等人)。2013年；印度洋SST：Pfeiffer等人。2017年)。这位博士将把这种比较应用于从代理人那里获得的洞察力最有价值的时期和地区。一个重点将是欧洲早期的仪器时期(1900年前，特别是GloSAT在1850年前的新延期)，在那里，不同的温度计暴露导致夏季温度偏差，有大量对夏季敏感、复制良好的树木年轮数据，并辅之以文献证据。另一个重点将是热带温度趋势与珊瑚记录信息的比较(协会2017年第2k页)。新的方法将加强该项目，包括利用来自上一个千年再分析的信息(Tardif等人)。2018年)，并将改进的方法应用于树轮分析(无信号区域曲线标准化)，以产生更可靠的百年趋势。毫无疑问，存在重大不确定性的是基于代理的百年趋势，博士项目将探索这一趋势。即使在这些太大而无法限制GloSAT仪器不确定性的地方，例如1800年至今，这些代理也将提供关于十年-十年十年温度变率的独立信息，博士项目将利用这一点来评估可比时间跨度内的仪器变化。例如，不同数据集之间在1800-1850年和1850-1900年间的气温变化存在差异，气候替代指标可能有助于解决这些问题。总体结果将是对案例研究区域的全球卫星温度和优化的气候变化信息进行独立评估。(2013)全球变暖是过去130年来的一项独立记录。地球上的植物。40,189193，DOI：10.1029/2012GL054271.PAGES2k联合会(2017年)一个全球多代理数据库，用于重建普通时代的温度。SCI。数据，4,170088，doi：10.1038/sdata.2017.88Pfeiffer等人。(2017)印度洋珊瑚揭示了二战偏见对20世纪全球变暖估计的关键作用。科学报告7,14434，https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-14352-6Tardif等人。(2018)使用扩展的代理数据库和季节性代理建模的上一个千禧年重新分析，Clim。过去的讨论，https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-120

Climate proxies are not just for extending the record before the instrumental period but also have value in assessing the instrumental record itself (e.g. global trends: Anderson et al. 2013; Indian Ocean SST: Pfeiffer et al. 2017). This PhD will apply such comparisons to periods and regions where the insight from proxies will be most valuable. One focus will be Europe in the early instrumental period (pre-1900 and especially GloSAT's new extension before 1850) where different thermometer exposures contribute to summer temperature biases and there is a wealth of summer-sensitive well-replicated tree-ring data supplemented by documentary evidence. Another focus will be tropical temperature trends in comparison with information from coral records (PAGES 2k Consortium 2017). Novel approaches will strengthen the project, including utilising information from the Last Millennium Reanalysis (Tardif et al. 2018) and applying improved approaches to tree-ring analysis (signal-free Regional Curve Standardisation) to yield more reliable multi-centennial trends. There are undoubtedly significant uncertainties is the proxy-based multi-centennial trends which the PhD project will explore. Even where these are too large to constrain the GloSAT instrumental uncertainties from, say, 1800-present, the proxies will also provide independent information on decadal-multidecadal temperature variability and the PhD project will utilise this to evaluate the instrumental variations over comparable time-spans. For example, there are differences in temperature changes over 1800-1850 and 1850-1900 between different datasets and the climate proxies might contribute to resolving these issues.The overall outcome will be an independent evaluation of GloSAT temperature and optimised climate change information in the case study regions.ReferencesAnderson et al. (2013) Global warming in an independent record of the past 130 years. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 189-193, doi: 10.1029/2012GL054271.PAGES2k Consortium (2017) A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era. Sci. Data, 4,170088, doi: 10.1038/sdata.2017.88Pfeiffer et al. (2017) Indian Ocean corals reveal crucial role of World War II bias for twentieth century warming estimates. Scientific Reports 7, 14434, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-14352-6Tardif et al. (2018) Last Millennium Reanalysis with an expanded proxy database and seasonal proxy modeling, Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-120