Collaborative Research: P2C2--Insights into Tropical Pacific Climate from Paleoproxy Data Assimilation into an Intermediate Complexity Dynamical Model

合作研究：P2C2——从古代理数据同化到中等复杂性动力模型中洞察热带太平洋气候

• 批准号: 2002469
• 负责人: Michael Evans
• 金额: $ 6.56万
• 依托单位: University of Maryland, College Park
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-06-01 至 2024-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2002469&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; P2C2; Insights; into

This project broadly seeks to reconstruct and interpret the state of the tropical Pacific over the last millennium in response to radiative forcing. This will be accomplished by assimilating high-resolution paleo-proxies from corals and trees into a dynamical El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) model.Dynamically informed paleo-reconstructions will be studied to address the following science questions: (i) how does the tropical Pacific respond to external radiative forcing (ERF); (ii) does ENSO exhibit regime-like behavior and is ENSO irregularity primarily due to chaotic or to noise-driven dynamics; (iii) how has ENSO varied in the past; and (iv) can a dynamical ENSO model improve paleo-proxy reconstructions of the tropical Pacific. These questions have implications for predictability and decadal variability and are relevant to understanding ENSO and its impacts, past, present and future. Adding information into paleoclimate reconstructions from a dynamical model of ENSO with documented predictive skill is a novel approach and may enhance interpretation of Tropical Pacific proxy records. The potential Broader Impacts include improved understanding of ENSO behavior over time, support of undergraduate students in the research project, and outreach to the public through well-established outreach efforts at Columbia University and the University of Maryland.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该项目主要旨在重建和解释过去千年热带太平洋对辐射强迫的反应。 这将通过将珊瑚和树木的高分辨率古代理同化到动态厄尔尼诺南方涛动（ENSO）模型中来实现。将研究动态信息古重建以解决以下科学问题：（i）热带太平洋如何响应外部辐射强迫（ERF）； (ii) ENSO 是否表现出类制度行为，以及 ENSO 的不规则性主要是由于混沌或噪声驱动的动力学造成的； (iii) ENSO 过去有何变化； (iv) 动态 ENSO 模型能否改善热带太平洋的古代理重建。这些问题对可预测性和年代际变化具有影响，并且与理解 ENSO 及其过去、现在和未来的影响相关。将具有记录的预测技能的 ENSO 动态模型的信息添加到古气候重建中是一种新颖的方法，可以增强对热带太平洋代理记录的解释。潜在的更广泛影响包括随着时间的推移，加深对 ENSO 行为的理解，支持本科生参与研究项目，以及通过哥伦比亚大学和马里兰大学完善的外展工作向公众进行外展。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Perspectives on Data Reproducibility and Replicability in Paleoclimate and Climate Science

• DOI: 10.1162/99608f92.00cd8f85
• 发表时间: 2020-12
• 作者: R. Bush;A. Dutton;M. Evans;R. Loft;G. Schmidt