Cambodia: Between the Khmers Rouges and the Red Plague?

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DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant):The proposed research involves the collection of quantitative and qualitative data on past reproductive behavior and the prospective follow-up of the demographic dynamics of a population of about 13,000 people in rural Cambodia. The first aim of this study is to provide the accurate and timely demographic indicators much needed for development planning in Cambodia. To date, the 1998 census and recent surveys have yielded conflicting results on current levels of fertility and child mortality. The data collection proposed here and extant techniques of demographic analysis will provide several indicators of the quality of the existing census and survey data. The population follow-up will provide reliable and timely indicators of current demographic levels and trends. The second aim is to document how the dramatic events of the 1970s have shaped the survivors' reproductive system, both at the community and the family level. A study of post-war reproductive behavior will combine analyses of our individual interviews and focus group discussions with males and females at different stages of their reproductive careers, with recent census and nationally representative survey data. The unusual features of recent Cambodian demography can provide unique insights on the long-standing theoretical debate on the impact of mortality changes on marriage and reproduction. The third aim of this study is to lay the foundations for longitudinal studies of social change in this population and, most immediately, of the demographic and social impact of the HIV epidemic. The study of the impact of HIV will be initiated during the two years of the follow-up but the bulk of the impact is likely to be felt in the later part of this decade. During the initial two-year period, however, we will be able to test a light structure for demographic surveillance that could be maintained indefinitely at low cost. The existence of this long-term observatory will complement and enhance future substantive research in this population.