Use of Game and Systems Theory to Improve Decision-making for Future Water Security Issues

决策是自然智力模型中的一个认知过程，选择是统计、经验和道德等重复认知功能组合的结果。这可以分为两类：描述性的和规范性的。描述性是对如何做出决策的分析，规范性是对决策结果的评估。博弈论是规范决策理论的一个分支，用于分析多个参与者之间的决策过程。GT的定义因素是它包含了多个决策者之间的战略行动。水安全是一个术语，用于描述获得和提供可持续的水的能力，这些水具有足够的“可供使用”的质量，以满足需求。这里的可持续发展概念是为子孙后代提供水安全，无论我们的生活方式和我们生活的世界将如何改变。这不仅限于人类发展的持续，也包括环境和生态的滋养和保护。然而，实现水安全并不简单，因为水作为一种社会和环境需求以及有限的经济利益具有双重性。这导致以水为基础的干预对我们的世界和社会的长寿至关重要；然而，执行这一干预可能成为政治驱动，在某些情况下，作为对立态度的产物，可能成为冲突的催化剂。GT已经很好地融入了计算机科学、社会经济和政治等领域；然而，利用GT评估与水资源有关的问题只是最近才开始探索的。与其他分析模型相比，使用GT研究水安全问题具有优势，因为它能够纳入除与资金和成本直接相关的要素之外的更高复杂性的要素。这为解决方案提供了背景，具有社会和政治行为、需求和紧张关系的基础，这些在传统的工程方法中往往被忽视。然而，当前的GT应用仍然侧重于通过优化效用函数的标准建模，侧重于经济效率，利益分配倾向于货币价值，而不是社会和环境影响。一种可以被认为是过时和非整体性的方法。仅将GT应用于水安全问题会带来与静态、简单化、传统的优化分配方法相关的问题。这些问题的症结在于人类理性的争论以及合作和系统均衡的理想主义。评估与未来水安全问题有关的风险的唯一手段是采用一种既能考虑人-水系统相互作用的描述性方面又能考虑规范性方面的方法。因此，建议将博弈论和系统论结合起来。作为一个更大的图景，水安全可以被评估为水系统和人类决策之间的联系；探索这些系统如何相互影响，如何通过干预可持续地管理这两个系统，以及最终为什么解决水安全等问题是行为和系统变化的问题。如果说有什么不同的话，那就是文献回顾强调了GT将复杂系统与各种领域相结合的能力。从这个意义上说，GT应该被开发为一种工具，能够考虑随着时间的推移，各种系统和人类的相互作用，并深入了解这些系统在水的可变性和人口增加等压力下如何变化。总体目标应是整合与水安全有关的更广泛问题的多种要素，而不是以提高经济效率和货币利益分配为中心的简约主义方法。

Decision making is a cognitive process in models of natural intelligence, with choice being the outcome of combinations of repetitive cognitive functions of statistics, experience and morality. This can be split into two categories: descriptive and normative. Descriptive being the analysis of how decisions are made, and normative being the assessment of decision outcomes. Game theory (GT) is a branch of normative decision theory, used in analysis of decision-making processes between multiple players. The defining factor of GT is its inclusion of strategic action between multiple decision makers.Water security is a term used to describe the ability to obtain and provide sustainable water, of adequate 'for-use' quality, to satisfy demand. The concept of sustainability here is to provide water security for future generations, regardless of how the way we live and the world we live in will change. This is not limited to the sustainment of human development, but also environmental and ecological nourishment and protection. However, achieving water security is not simple due to water's duality as a social and environmental necessity, and finite economic good. This causes water-based intervention to be crucial in the longevity of our world and society; however, executing this can become politically driven and, in some cases, a catalyst for conflict as a product in opposing attitudes. GT is already well integrated into fields such as computer science, socio-economics and politics; however, utilisation in assessing issues related to water resource have only been explored relatively recently. The use of GT for studying water security issues holds advantage over other analytical models, due to its capability to incorporate elements of higher complexity other than those associated directly with finance and cost. This provides context to solutions, with foundations in social and political behaviour, needs, and tensions, which are often neglected in a traditional engineering approach. However, current GT application still focuses around normative modelling through optimisation of utility functions, focussing on economic efficiency, with benefit allocation gravitating towards monetary value over social and environmental impacts. An approach that could be argued as outdated and non-holistic.Applying GT alone to water security issues presents problems associated with a static, reductionist, traditional optimisation, allocation approach. The crux of these issues are formed from arguments of human rationality and idealisms of cooperation and system equilibria. The only means of assessing the risks associated with future water security issues is through an approach that can consider both descriptive and normative aspects of human-water system interaction. Hence, a combination of game and systems theory is suggested.As a bigger picture, water security can be assessed as the linkage between water systems and human decisions; exploration of how these influence one another, how both these systems can be managed sustainably through intervention, and ultimately why the tackling of issues, such as water security, are problems of behavioural and systems change. If anything, literature review highlights the capability of GT to combine complex systems with a variety of domains. In this sense, GT should be exploited as a tool that has the capacity to consider a wide spectrum of systems and human interactions over time, with insights into how these change under pressures such as increased water variability and population. The general aim should be to integrate multiple elements of much wider issues related to water security, rather than a reductionist approach centred on improving economic efficiency andallocation of monetary benefit.