Use of Game and Systems Theory to Improve Decision-making for Future Water Security Issues

决策是自然智能模型中的一个认知过程，选择是统计、经验和道德等重复认知功能组合的结果。这可以分为两类：描述性和规范性。描述性是对如何做出决策的分析，规范性是对决策结果的评估。博弈论（GT）是规范决策理论的一个分支，用于分析多个参与者之间的决策过程。GT的定义因素是它包含了多个决策者之间的战略行动。水安全是一个术语，用来描述获得和提供可持续的水的能力，足够的“使用”质量，以满足需求。这里的可持续性概念是为子孙后代提供水安全，而不管我们的生活方式和我们生活的世界将如何改变。这不仅是对人类发展的维持，也是对环境和生态的滋养和保护。然而，实现水安全并不简单，因为水既是社会和环境的必需品，又是有限的经济利益。因此，水基干预对我们的世界和社会的长寿至关重要；然而，执行这种做法可能会受到政治驱动，在某些情况下还会成为冲突的催化剂，成为对立态度的产物。GT已经很好地融入了计算机科学、社会经济学和政治学等领域；然而，在评估与水资源有关的问题方面的利用是最近才开始探索的。利用总汇研究水安全问题比其他分析模型更有优势，因为它能够纳入与财务和成本直接相关的因素以外的更复杂的因素。这为解决方案提供了背景，以社会和政治行为、需求和紧张关系为基础，这些在传统的工程方法中经常被忽视。然而，目前的GT应用仍然侧重于通过效用函数优化的规范建模，关注经济效率，利益分配更倾向于货币价值而不是社会和环境影响。这种方法可能会被认为是过时和不全面的。将GT单独应用于水安全问题会出现与静态的、简化的、传统的优化分配方法相关的问题。这些问题的症结形成于人的理性论证和合作与制度均衡的理想主义。评估与未来水安全问题有关的风险的唯一手段是采用一种既能考虑人-水系统相互作用的描述性方面又能考虑规范性方面的办法。因此，建议将博弈论和系统论结合起来。从更大的角度来看，水安全可以被评估为水系统与人类决策之间的联系；探索它们如何相互影响，如何通过干预来可持续地管理这两个系统，以及最终为什么解决诸如水安全之类的问题是行为和系统变化的问题。如果有的话，文献综述强调了GT将复杂系统与各种领域结合起来的能力。从这个意义上说，GT应该作为一种工具加以利用，它有能力考虑广泛的系统和人类之间的长期相互作用，并深入了解这些系统和人类之间的相互作用如何在压力下发生变化，例如水的变异性和人口的增加。总的目标应该是综合与水安全有关的更广泛的问题的多个要素，而不是以提高经济效率和分配金钱利益为中心的简化方法。

Decision making is a cognitive process in models of natural intelligence, with choice being the outcome of combinations of repetitive cognitive functions of statistics, experience and morality. This can be split into two categories: descriptive and normative. Descriptive being the analysis of how decisions are made, and normative being the assessment of decision outcomes. Game theory (GT) is a branch of normative decision theory, used in analysis of decision-making processes between multiple players. The defining factor of GT is its inclusion of strategic action between multiple decision makers.Water security is a term used to describe the ability to obtain and provide sustainable water, of adequate 'for-use' quality, to satisfy demand. The concept of sustainability here is to provide water security for future generations, regardless of how the way we live and the world we live in will change. This is not limited to the sustainment of human development, but also environmental and ecological nourishment and protection. However, achieving water security is not simple due to water's duality as a social and environmental necessity, and finite economic good. This causes water-based intervention to be crucial in the longevity of our world and society; however, executing this can become politically driven and, in some cases, a catalyst for conflict as a product in opposing attitudes. GT is already well integrated into fields such as computer science, socio-economics and politics; however, utilisation in assessing issues related to water resource have only been explored relatively recently. The use of GT for studying water security issues holds advantage over other analytical models, due to its capability to incorporate elements of higher complexity other than those associated directly with finance and cost. This provides context to solutions, with foundations in social and political behaviour, needs, and tensions, which are often neglected in a traditional engineering approach. However, current GT application still focuses around normative modelling through optimisation of utility functions, focussing on economic efficiency, with benefit allocation gravitating towards monetary value over social and environmental impacts. An approach that could be argued as outdated and non-holistic.Applying GT alone to water security issues presents problems associated with a static, reductionist, traditional optimisation, allocation approach. The crux of these issues are formed from arguments of human rationality and idealisms of cooperation and system equilibria. The only means of assessing the risks associated with future water security issues is through an approach that can consider both descriptive and normative aspects of human-water system interaction. Hence, a combination of game and systems theory is suggested.As a bigger picture, water security can be assessed as the linkage between water systems and human decisions; exploration of how these influence one another, how both these systems can be managed sustainably through intervention, and ultimately why the tackling of issues, such as water security, are problems of behavioural and systems change. If anything, literature review highlights the capability of GT to combine complex systems with a variety of domains. In this sense, GT should be exploited as a tool that has the capacity to consider a wide spectrum of systems and human interactions over time, with insights into how these change under pressures such as increased water variability and population. The general aim should be to integrate multiple elements of much wider issues related to water security, rather than a reductionist approach centred on improving economic efficiency andallocation of monetary benefit.