Use of Game and Systems Theory to Improve Decision-making for Future Water Security Issues

利用博弈和系统理论改进未来水安全问题的决策

• 批准号: 2274928
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Newcastle University
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2019 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2274928
• 关键词: Use; Game; Systems; Theory; Improve

Decision making is a cognitive process in models of natural intelligence, with choice being the outcome of combinations of repetitive cognitive functions of statistics, experience and morality. This can be split into two categories: descriptive and normative. Descriptive being the analysis of how decisions are made, and normative being the assessment of decision outcomes. Game theory (GT) is a branch of normative decision theory, used in analysis of decision-making processes between multiple players. The defining factor of GT is its inclusion of strategic action between multiple decision makers.Water security is a term used to describe the ability to obtain and provide sustainable water, of adequate 'for-use' quality, to satisfy demand. The concept of sustainability here is to provide water security for future generations, regardless of how the way we live and the world we live in will change. This is not limited to the sustainment of human development, but also environmental and ecological nourishment and protection. However, achieving water security is not simple due to water's duality as a social and environmental necessity, and finite economic good. This causes water-based intervention to be crucial in the longevity of our world and society; however, executing this can become politically driven and, in some cases, a catalyst for conflict as a product in opposing attitudes. GT is already well integrated into fields such as computer science, socio-economics and politics; however, utilisation in assessing issues related to water resource have only been explored relatively recently. The use of GT for studying water security issues holds advantage over other analytical models, due to its capability to incorporate elements of higher complexity other than those associated directly with finance and cost. This provides context to solutions, with foundations in social and political behaviour, needs, and tensions, which are often neglected in a traditional engineering approach. However, current GT application still focuses around normative modelling through optimisation of utility functions, focussing on economic efficiency, with benefit allocation gravitating towards monetary value over social and environmental impacts. An approach that could be argued as outdated and non-holistic.Applying GT alone to water security issues presents problems associated with a static, reductionist, traditional optimisation, allocation approach. The crux of these issues are formed from arguments of human rationality and idealisms of cooperation and system equilibria. The only means of assessing the risks associated with future water security issues is through an approach that can consider both descriptive and normative aspects of human-water system interaction. Hence, a combination of game and systems theory is suggested.As a bigger picture, water security can be assessed as the linkage between water systems and human decisions; exploration of how these influence one another, how both these systems can be managed sustainably through intervention, and ultimately why the tackling of issues, such as water security, are problems of behavioural and systems change. If anything, literature review highlights the capability of GT to combine complex systems with a variety of domains. In this sense, GT should be exploited as a tool that has the capacity to consider a wide spectrum of systems and human interactions over time, with insights into how these change under pressures such as increased water variability and population. The general aim should be to integrate multiple elements of much wider issues related to water security, rather than a reductionist approach centred on improving economic efficiency andallocation of monetary benefit.

决策是自然智能模型中的认知过程，选择是统计、经验和道德等重复认知功能组合的结果。这可以分为两类：描述性和规范性。描述性是对如何做出决策的分析，规范性是对决策结果的评估。博弈论（GT）是规范决策理论的一个分支，用于分析多个参与者之间的决策过程。GT的决定性因素是它包含了多个决策者之间的战略行动。水安全是一个术语，用来描述获得和提供可持续的水的能力，足够的“供使用”的质量，以满足需求。这里的可持续性概念是为子孙后代提供水安全，无论我们的生活方式和我们生活的世界将如何变化。这不仅限于维持人类发展，而且也包括环境和生态的滋养和保护。然而，实现水安全并不简单，因为水既是社会和环境的必需品，又是有限的经济商品。这使得基于水的干预措施对我们的世界和社会的长寿至关重要;然而，执行这一措施可能受到政治驱动，在某些情况下，作为对立态度的产物，可能成为冲突的催化剂。GT已经很好地融入到计算机科学，社会经济学和政治等领域，然而，在评估与水资源有关的问题的利用只是最近才探索。使用GT研究水安全问题比其他分析模型具有优势，因为它能够将更高的复杂性因素，而不是直接与财务和成本相关的因素。这为解决方案提供了背景，并以社会和政治行为、需求和紧张局势为基础，而这些往往在传统的工程方法中被忽视。然而，目前的GT应用仍然侧重于规范建模，通过优化效用函数，侧重于经济效率，利益分配倾向于货币价值，而不是社会和环境影响。一种可能被认为是过时的和非整体的方法。将GT单独应用于水安全问题提出了与静态的、简化的、传统的优化分配方法相关的问题。这些问题的核心是人类理性的争论和合作主义、系统均衡主义的争论。评估与未来水安全问题相关的风险的唯一手段是通过一种既能考虑人与水系统相互作用的描述性方面又能考虑其规范性方面的方法。因此，结合博弈论和系统理论的建议，作为一个更大的画面，水安全可以评估为水系统和人类决策之间的联系;探索这些如何相互影响，这两个系统如何可以通过干预可持续地管理，并最终为什么解决问题，如水安全，是行为和系统变化的问题。如果有的话，文献综述突出了GT的能力，联合收割机复杂的系统与各种领域。从这个意义上说，GT应该被利用作为一种工具，有能力考虑随着时间的推移，系统和人类的相互作用的范围很广，洞察这些如何变化的压力下，如增加水的变化和人口。总的目标应该是综合与水安全有关的更广泛问题的多种要素，而不是以提高经济效率和分配货币利益为中心的简化方法。