Non-stationarity of teleconnections in the climate system

气候系统中遥相关的非平稳性

• 批准号: 2278798
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Oxford
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2019 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2278798
• 关键词: Non; stationarity; teleconnections; climate; system

6During my PhD. I will be researching teleconnections and their non-stationarity in our climate system. The connections of different climate modes like the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), or the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to each other and to other processes are large areas of active research (e.g. Rodriguez-Fonseca et al., 2016). These teleconnections are of high importance as the interaction between climate modes can directly change the local climate of large regions (e.g. Europe for changes in the NAO). In addition the existence of teleconnections between tropics and extra tropics can have large impacts on our ability to forecast the extratropical climate as O'Reilly (2018) has shown. O'Reilly et al. (2019) have shown that these teleconnection changed in the past and will also very likely change in the future in a warming world again. The changes and non-stationarities of teleconnections are also highly influenced by small changes in internal atmospheric dynamics and there is still large uncertainties why these teleconnections changed in the past. Therefore it is of high importance to investigate these changes in the past to understand how teleconnections will change in the future. As a first test case, the extremely warm and well predictable winter in northern Europe of 2019/2020 will be investigated. The anomalous winter was driven by a positive NAO. This positive NAO likely had some unusual teleconnection patterns active. Identifying the teleconnection pattern of this winter is therefore a useful first step in understanding why teleconnections can differ from year to year.

6在我读博士期间。我将研究遥相关和它们在我们气候系统中的非平稳性。厄尔尼诺南方涛动（ENSO）、印度洋偶极子（IOD）或北大西洋涛动（NAO）等不同气候模式之间的相互联系以及与其他过程的联系是活跃研究的大领域（例如，Rodriguez-Fonseca等人，2016年）。这些遥相关非常重要，因为气候模式之间的相互作用可以直接改变大区域的局部气候（例如欧洲的NAO变化）。此外，热带和热带以外地区之间遥相关的存在可能对我们预测热带外气候的能力产生很大影响，正如O'Reilly（2018）所示。O'Reilly等人（2019年）已经表明，这些遥相关在过去发生了变化，并且在未来再次变暖的世界中也很可能发生变化。遥相关的变化和非定常性也受到内部大气动力学微小变化的高度影响，这些遥相关在过去发生变化的原因仍然存在很大的不确定性。因此，研究遥相关在过去的变化对了解遥相关在未来的变化是非常重要的。作为第一个测试案例，将研究2019/2020年北方欧洲极端温暖且可预测的冬季。异常冬季是由正NAO驱动的。这个正NAO可能有一些不寻常的遥相关模式活跃。因此，确定今年冬天的遥相关模式是理解为什么遥相关每年都不同的有用的第一步。