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Climate change attribution and litigation: induction of climate risk in the global financial system (CASE)

气候变化归因与诉讼：在全球金融体系中引入气候风险（CASE）

基本信息

批准号：
2284299
负责人：
金额：
--
依托单位：
University of Oxford
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Studentship
财政年份：
2019
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2019 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2284299
关键词：
Climate change attribution litigation induction

项目摘要

In his 2003 Nature commentary, Myles Allen posed the question: "will it ever be possible to sue anyone for damaging the climate?" (Allen, 2003). During the intervening decade-and-a-half, over 850 court cases have been brought for which climate change is a relevant factor (Nachmany et al., 2018), supported by advances in the science of climate change attribution (Ekwurzel et al., 2017; Otto et al., 2017; Marjanac and Patton, 2018; Harrington and Otto, 2019). Discussion of climate change litigation in the academic literature has hitherto focused primarily on its potential as a tool for delivering restorative justice to those affected by climate change impacts (Allen and Lord, 2004; Thornton and Covington, 2016). By contrast, investigation of the full causal chain of attributing climate change impacts to emitters, the potential for successful climate change litigation (Franta, 2017), and the resultant consequences for the global financial system remains a notable gap in the literature. In a recent review of academic research on the topic, the authors call for more scientific and economic perspectives on climate change litigation and its impacts: a call which this DPhil will answer (Setzer and Vanhala, 2019).My research will examine the potential of climate litigation to act as a sensitive intervention point (SIP) in the transition to a post-carbon society (Farmer et al., 2019). Accordingly, future legal judgements could initiate a series of positive feedbacks encompassing public policy, corporate disclosure requirements, investor awareness of climate-related financial risk and financial repercussions for emitting firms, providing a perturbation of the financial system needed to initiate rapid decarbonisation. A complete understanding of how this SIP may be triggered and the likely consequences thereof requires the exploration of its full, multidisciplinary causal chain. This includes further development of scientific attribution methodologies (e.g. Hannart et al., 2016) to allow causality to be expressed in legal terms, increasing its relevance and providing formal causation before the courts, and anticipating the consequences of legal judgements for the financial system. Supported by an understanding of historic examples such as tobacco and asbestos litigation, complex system modelling can project the evolution of the consequences of triggering this SIP for the global financial system.

迈尔斯艾伦在2003年的《自然》杂志评论中提出了这样一个问题：“是否有可能起诉任何破坏气候的人？“（艾伦，2003年）。在其间的15年中，有850多起气候变化是相关因素的法庭案件（Nachmany等人，2018年），得到了气候变化归因科学进展的支持（Ekwurzel et al.，2017; Otto等人，2017; Marjanac和Patton，2018;哈灵顿和Otto，2019）。迄今为止，学术文献中对气候变化诉讼的讨论主要集中在其作为向受气候变化影响的人提供恢复性司法的工具的潜力上（艾伦和洛德，2004年;桑顿和科文顿，2016年）。相比之下，对将气候变化影响归因于排放者的完整因果链的调查，成功的气候变化诉讼的潜力（Franta，2017）以及对全球金融体系的后果仍然是文献中的一个显着空白。在最近对该主题学术研究的回顾中，作者呼吁对气候变化诉讼及其影响进行更多的科学和经济视角：本博士将回答这一问题（Setzer和Vanhala，2019年）。我的研究将研究气候诉讼作为后碳社会转型中的敏感干预点（SIP）的潜力（Farmer等人，2019年）。因此，未来的法律的判决可能会引发一系列积极的反馈，包括公共政策、公司披露要求、投资者对与气候相关的金融风险的认识以及对排放企业的金融影响，从而对启动快速脱碳所需的金融体系产生扰动。要全面了解这一SIP如何触发及其可能的后果，需要探索其完整的多学科因果链。这包括进一步发展科学归因方法（例如Hannart等人，2016年）允许因果关系以法律的术语表达，增加其相关性，并在法庭上提供正式的因果关系，并预测法律的判决对金融体系的后果。在对烟草和石棉诉讼等历史案例的理解的支持下，复杂的系统建模可以预测触发这一SIP对全球金融体系的后果的演变。