Improving Projections of Regional Climate Change for Australia Using Detection and Attribution Studies

利用检测和归因研究改进澳大利亚区域气候变化的预测

• 批准号: DP0344062
• 负责人: Dr James Risbey
• 金额: $ 11.77万
• 依托单位: Monash University
• 依托单位国家: 澳大利亚
• 项目类别: Discovery Projects
• 财政年份: 2003
• 资助国家: 澳大利亚
• 起止时间: 2003-01-01 至 2005-07-15
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://dataportal.arc.gov.au/RGS/Web/Grants/DP0344062
• 关键词: Improving; Projections; Regional; Climate; Change

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded in 2001 that "most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations" and that "anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries". This project will reduce uncertainties in projections of future climate change for Australia. We will compare model-simulated climate changes during the twentieth century with observed changes globally and in the Australian region. These comparisons will be used with statistical modelling to estimate probability distributions for future changes in Australian climate.

2001年，政府间气候变化专门委员会得出结论，“过去50年观测到的大部分变暖很可能是由于温室气体浓度的增加”，“人为的气候变化将持续许多世纪”。该项目将减少对澳大利亚未来气候变化预测的不确定性。我们将比较模式模拟的20世纪气候变化与全球和澳大利亚地区观测到的变化。这些比较将与统计模型一起用于估计澳大利亚气候未来变化的概率分布。