Building physical constraints into weather-related risk estimates

当需要外推到非常罕见的重现期时，标准的极值模型及其典型的统计推断技术可能会导致估计具有很大的不确定性。在许多情况下，这些估计开始超过合理的水平，这样大的值可以降低最终用户对极端值模型最终结果的信心。在最近的极端天气事件的背景下，自然灾害特征描述仍然是EDF Energy的一个重要研究领域。这个博士项目被视为改善EDF能源内部使用的自然灾害特征描述方法的一种方式。总体目标是从历史记录中获得关于极端降雨风险的更可靠的限制，利用物理原理从某些极端事件的可观察原因中得出推论。该项目将联合收割机结合极端值理论的新发展与理解极端事件物理驱动因素的方法的最新进展。

When required to extrapolate to very rare return periods, standard extreme value models and their typified statistical inference techniques can lead to estimates with a large amount of uncertainty. In many situations, these estimates start to exceed plausible levels and such large values can reduce the confidence that end-users have in the final results from extreme value models.In the context of recent extreme weather events, natural hazard characterisation continues to be an important area of research for EDF Energy. This PhD project is seen as a way to improve the natural hazard characterisation approaches used within EDF Energy. The overall goal is to obtain more reliable constraints on extreme rainfall risk from historical records, using physical principles to draw inference from observable causes to certain extreme events. This project will combine new developments in extreme value theory with recent advances in approaches for understanding the physical drivers of extreme events.