The response of the Antarctic ice sheet to stratospheric aerosol geoengineering and carbon dioxide removal

海平面上升（SLR）是人为气候变化导致的最严重问题之一，使沿海人口面临风暴潮、海岸侵蚀和海啸的高风险。IPCC非常有信心地认为，冰川和冰盖是SLR的主要贡献者，而且无论采用哪种排放情景，SLR预计都将持续到22世纪。因此，更引人注目的措施被提出，如地球工程，即故意操纵地球系统的一个方面来减轻人为变暖的影响的行为。地球工程建议包括太阳辐射管理和二氧化碳去除。如果要实施地球工程，那么必须对其对南极冰盖（AIS）的影响进行严格评估，而南极冰盖是最重要的SLR贡献者之一。该项目将根据CMIP6、GeoMIP和CDR-MIP档案的输出强制运行BISICLES冰盖模型至2300年，为每个模型生成一个集合。然后将对每个集成进行高斯过程仿真，允许执行数千个模型运行，并生成AIS在各种地球工程和非地球工程场景下对单反的贡献的概率预测。

Sea level rise (SLR) is one of the most significant problems resulting from anthropogenic climate change, exposing coastal populations to higher risks of storm surges, coastal erosion, and tsunamis. The IPCC has very high confidence that glaciers and ice sheets are the dominant contributor to SLR and that SLR is projected to continue well into the 22nd century regardless of which emissions scenario is followed. Consequently, more dramatic measures have been proposed such as geoengineering, the deliberate act of manipulating an aspect of the earth system to alleviate the impacts of anthropogenic warming. Geoengineering proposals include solar radiation management and carbon dioxide removal. If geoengineering is to be implemented, then rigorous assessment of its impacts on the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), one of the most important SLR contributors, must be undertaken. This project will run the BISICLES ice sheet model to 2300 forced by output from the CMIP6, GeoMIP and CDR-MIP archives, generating an ensemble for each. A Gaussian Process Emulation will then be fitted for each ensemble, allowing thousands of model runs to be performed and the generation of probabilistic projections of the AIS' contribution to SLR under various geoengineered and non-geoengineered scenarios.