Pathways to Realistic Impact Modelling in Estuarine Areas

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Estuaries act as the sole connectors of terrestrial and marine environments; consequently, they are crucial for global water and nutrient cycling, carbon storage, ecosystem resilience and public services such as food security, human health and social wellbeing. Being constrained by both terrestrial and marine processes, estuaries are especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change. For the UK, a sea-level rise of up to 1m is expected this century, together with wetter winters that will change river behaviour - drastically increasing flood risk and terrestrial fluxes of freshwater, nutrients, sediments, microplastics and harmful bacteria to the ocean. Urban development of flood-prone areas and intensification of catchment land use (e.g. deforestation) can further alter river flow/load behaviours and extenuate the risks. An improved understanding these complex combination hazards is therefore urgently needed for coastal resilience initiatives, e.g. tree-planting, flood-storage or wastewater management.