A Dynamic Model of Teen Sex, Abortion and Childbearing

描述：美国的少女怀孕率虽然在1999年创下新低，但仍然很高，每1000名少女中有46.6人怀孕。利用二次数据分析，我们将估计青少年关于性行为、避孕和其他怀孕结果的动态离散选择模型。通过估计动态模型，我们将能够解释由于习惯形成而导致的持久性。然后，动态模型将用于预测在不同国家关于性教育和获得生殖健康服务的政策下的短期和长期青少年怀孕率和出生率。

(Revised Abstract) DESCRIPTION: Teenage pregnancy rates, although hitting a new low in 1999, are still very high in the U. S. with 46.6 births per 1000 teenage women. Using secondary data analysis, we will estimate a dynamic discrete choice model of teen decisions about sexual activity, contraception, and other pregnancy outcomes. By estimating the dynamic model, we will be able to account for persistence due to habit formation. The dynamic model will then be used to forecast both short and long run teen pregnancy and birth rates under different state policies regarding sex education, and access to reproductive health services.