A Dynamic Model of Teen Sex, Abortion and Childbearing

青少年性行为、堕胎和生育的动态模型

• 批准号: 6827841
• 负责人: AHMED W KHWAJA
• 金额: $ 7.7万
• 依托单位: DUKE UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2003
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2003-12-01 至 2006-11-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/6827841
• 关键词: adolescence (12-20); age at pregnancy; behavioral /social science research tag; choice; clinical research; contraceptives; decision making; family structure /dynamics; habits; health care policy; health care service availability; human data; induced abortion; longitudinal human study; model; religion; safe sex /sex abstinence; sex behavior; sex education; women' s health

(Revised Abstract) DESCRIPTION: Teenage pregnancy rates, although hitting a new low in 1999, are still very high in the U. S. with 46.6 births per 1000 teenage women. Using secondary data analysis, we will estimate a dynamic discrete choice model of teen decisions about sexual activity, contraception, and other pregnancy outcomes. By estimating the dynamic model, we will be able to account for persistence due to habit formation. The dynamic model will then be used to forecast both short and long run teen pregnancy and birth rates under different state policies regarding sex education, and access to reproductive health services.

（修订摘要）描述：青少年怀孕率，虽然在1999年创下新低，在美国仍然很高。S.每1000名少女生育46.6人。使用二次数据分析，我们将估计一个动态离散选择模型的青少年的决定，性活动，避孕，和其他怀孕的结果。通过估计动态模型，我们将能够解释由于习惯形成而导致的持久性。然后，动态模型将被用来预测短期和长期的青少年怀孕率和出生率在不同的国家政策下，性教育，并获得生殖健康服务。