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Taking the escalator to extinction: Understanding the role of rapid forest expansion in driving hotspots of extinction risk for endemic species in Tai

走向灭绝的自动扶梯：了解森林快速扩张在推动泰国特有物种灭绝风险热点中的作用

基本信息

批准号：
2436971
负责人：
金额：
--
依托单位：
University of Stirling
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Studentship
财政年份：
2020
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2020 至无数据
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2436971
关键词：
Taking escalator extinction Understanding role

项目摘要

Despite an abundance of data quantifying and predicting the response of forest distribution to ongoing climatic changes in temperate and boreal regions, there is a near absence of data, and hence little understanding, of how tropical mountain systems will respond to climate change(1). While we understand that forests are often expanding rapidly at high elevation as temperatures warm, little attention has been given to the implications of such changes for plants above the forest limit (2,3). Data frequently demonstrate upward migration of such alpine species also, however, with highly limited habitat availability at high altitude, such upward migration is dubbed the 'elevator to extinction' since once at the highest elevations, such alpine species have no-where left to go (4). Data on high elevation extinction risk are, however, vanishingly rare. This significant knowledge gap has major implications for our ability to predict future impacts of environmental change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (5).Previous work by the supervisory team in the region has identified rapid shifts in the altitudinal distribution of alpine plant species driven directly by rising temperature and through displacement due to elevation of the mountain treeline (4). However, expansion of forest at the treeline is highly heterogeneous; expanding rapidly in some areas but remaining static in others (6). While elevational shifts of forest risk alpine plant extinction, spatial heterogeneity in advance allows a mechanism for continued coexistence (7).

尽管有大量数据量化和预测森林分布对温带和北方地区持续气候变化的反应，但几乎缺乏数据，因此对热带山区系统将如何应对气候变化知之甚少（1）。虽然我们知道，随着气温变暖，森林往往在高海拔地区迅速扩张，但很少有人注意到这种变化对森林界限以上植物的影响（2，3）。数据经常显示这些高山物种也向上迁移，然而，由于高海拔地区的栖息地非常有限，这种向上迁移被称为“灭绝电梯”，因为一旦到达最高海拔，这些高山物种就无处可去了。然而，关于高海拔灭绝风险的数据非常罕见。这一巨大的知识差距对我们预测未来环境变化对生物多样性和生态系统服务的影响的能力具有重大影响（5）。该地区的监督团队先前的工作已经确定了高山植物物种的海拔分布的快速变化，这些变化直接受到气温上升的驱动，并通过由于山脉树线升高而引起的位移（4）。然而，林木线上的森林扩张是高度异质的;在某些地区迅速扩张，但在其他地区保持静止（6）。虽然森林的海拔变化有可能导致高山植物灭绝，但预先存在的空间异质性允许继续共存的机制（7）。