Investigating earthquake determinism with a multi-method approach

平均每年大约有14万次可检测到的地震，其中大约15次增长到7级或更高。地震发生后，我们可以简单地计算出这个最终震级，但尚不清楚地震是否在破裂结束前“知道”它的最终震级。如果成核和早期破裂的特征允许我们确定地震震级，我们说成核是确定性的(1)。在过去，我们应用了许多不同的方法来理解这种范式的真实程度。然而，我已经指出了现有决定论工作的一个关键局限性，即它通常对地理或构造环境相似的小地震子集使用单一的方法或方法类别。在我的DPhil中，我将对跨越幅度、机制和构造背景的大型数据集应用各种方法。

On average there are about 140,000 detectable earthquakes a year, of which around 15 grow to be magnitude 7 or greater. After an earthquake, we can simply calculate this final magnitude, but it is unclearif an earthquake `knows' its final magnitude before rupture ends. If characteristics of nucleation and early rupture allow us to determine earthquake magnitude, we say nucleation is deterministic (1). In the past, wehave applied many different approaches to understand the extent to which this paradigm is true. However, I have identified a key limitation of existing work on determinism, in that it generally uses a single methodor class of methods on small subsets of earthquakes which are all in similar geographical or tectonic settings. In my DPhil, I will apply a variety of methods to a large dataset spanning magnitudes, mechanisms andtectonic settings.