Investigating earthquake determinism with a multi-method approach

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On average there are about 140,000 detectable earthquakes a year, of which around 15 grow to be magnitude 7 or greater. After an earthquake, we can simply calculate this final magnitude, but it is unclearif an earthquake `knows' its final magnitude before rupture ends. If characteristics of nucleation and early rupture allow us to determine earthquake magnitude, we say nucleation is deterministic (1). In the past, wehave applied many different approaches to understand the extent to which this paradigm is true. However, I have identified a key limitation of existing work on determinism, in that it generally uses a single methodor class of methods on small subsets of earthquakes which are all in similar geographical or tectonic settings. In my DPhil, I will apply a variety of methods to a large dataset spanning magnitudes, mechanisms andtectonic settings.