Spatio-Temporal Modelling of COVID Prevalence Scenarios.

自2020年初以来，英国一直在与SARS-CoV-2(Covid19)大流行作斗争。它影响了我们每个人的生活，英国没有一个地区能够避免这种病毒。最后，毫不夸张地说，Covid 19大流行改写了成功的流行病模型的许多规则手册。随着Covid 19大流行的进展，我们将不可避免地经历感染的浪潮和低谷，因为病毒的流行发生变化。在未来，英国可能会达到地方病流行的状态。这是在感染率下降之后，因为更大比例的人口对疫苗计划和存活的感染都产生了抵抗力。最终，英国将经历低但持续的感染率。目前，我们还没有准备好在上述低流行率情况下在英国范围内提供有意义的监测工具。博士项目的主要目标是填补时空统计流行病学建模方面的这一空白，并开发一种有意义的方法，在我们进入Covid 19 EndGame的过程中在英国范围内提供Covid 19流行模型。由于SARS-CoV-2大流行的状态在最好的时候也在快速变化，因此，随着需要的出现，期望该项目适应国家统计局--该项目的赞助商--确定的未来关切是现实的。PHD项目可以扩展以解决英国面临的一些开放挑战，例如优化随机调查资源的分配以将流行率不确定性降至最低，以及扩展当前的高流行率上升风险地区早期检测方法(热点检测)。总而言之，该项目希望帮助填补在成功的流行病建模方面缺失的页面，因为整个国家展望了超越Covid19的未来。

Since early 2020, the UK has been battling the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid19) pandemic. It has impacted the lives of every one of us, and no region of the UK has been able to avoid the virus. Ultimately, it is not an exaggeration to say the Covid 19 pandemic has rewritten much of the rulebook on successful epidemic modelling.As the Covid 19 pandemic progresses, it is inevitable that we will experience waves and troughs of infections as the prevalence of the virus changes. In the future, the UK will likely reach an endemic state. This is after infection rates decline because of greater proportions of the population gaining resistance from both vaccine programs and surviving infections. Eventually the UK will experience low but sustained infection rates. Currently we are not equipped with the tools to provide meaningful UK wide surveillance in the aforementioned low prevalence, "Endgame", scenario.The primary goal of the PhD project is to fill this gap in Spatio-Temporal statistical epidemiologic modelling, and to develop a meaningful method providing Covid 19 prevalence modelling across the UK as we progress into the Covid 19 Endgame. As the state of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is fast moving at the best of times, it is realistic to expect the project to adapt to future concerns identified by the Office of National Statistics, this project's sponsor, as the need arises. The PhD project can be extended to address some open challenges the UK faces, such as Optimal Allocation of Randomised Survey Resources to Minimise Prevalence Uncertainty and extending current methods for Early Detection of Areas at Risk of High Prevalence Increase (hotspot detection). Altogether, the project hopes to help fill in the missing pages in successful epidemic modelling as the country at large looks to a future beyond Covid 19.In partnership with the Office for National Statistics.