The Use of Simulation-based inference methods in the Parameter Estimation of Factors Governing the Location of Known Ancient Roads

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By studying past movements, we can understand the flow of people, ideas, objects, and information from place to place.In particular, roads provide important information about the structure of a society and how societies inhabited thelandscape. In the last two decades, the use of spatial modelling and Geographic Information Systems to reconstructancient roads and identify factors governing the construction of known roads has increased In particular, Least Cost Path(LCP) analysis, which finds the optimal path between two geographic points (Hardin et al., 2012) has becomewidespread in its application. There is currently considerable debate over the best methodological application of LCP inarchaeology. Though Rahn (2005) states that LCP analysis represents a well-established methodology, Herzog (2013,184) considers this by "no means trivial" and highlights that it is still necessary to investigate the parameters used withinthe LCP calculation. However, as models become more complex, the impact of each cost factor on the computed LCPbecomes more difficult to assess. To overcome the limitations in the current approach to LCP analysis and to enhanceour understanding of the factors dictating the emergence and evolution of roads, this research proposes simulation based inference methods, through the use of Bayesian statistics. The Bayesian approach to modelling will allow for theestimation of factors that plausibly governed where ancient roads were located.