Stress-testing global infrastructure networks to synchronous flood events

建筑物、道路和电力网络等民用基础设施构成社会的支柱，支持人类福祉(Thacker等人，2019年)。鉴于社会对基础设施系统的严重依赖，中断给全球带来了沉重的经济负担，自1980年以来，洪灾造成了10,920亿美元的损失(慕尼黑再保险公司，2019年)。在人口增长和气候变化导致极端天气可能性增加的背景下，确保基础设施系统对冲击具有弹性正成为一项日益紧迫的任务(WinSemius等人，2016年；Forzieri等人，2018年；Hall等人，2019年)。然而，现有的专注于洪水造成的基础设施破坏的大规模研究(Hirabayashi，2013；WinSemius等人，2013；Koks等人，2019b)受到两个隐含假设的严重限制：1)洪水事件在整个空间相互独立地发生；2)一项资产故障的后果仅限于该单一资产，而不考虑网络影响1。这对我们理解基础设施系统的最坏情况是什么具有重大影响；例如，同时发生的洪水可能会引起大范围损失，从而压倒保险索赔(Jongman等人，2014年)。为了系统地确定脆弱资产和确定适应资金的目标，应对基础设施系统进行压力测试，2以应对大量现实的同步洪灾事件。

Civil infrastructures, such as buildings, roads and electricity networks, form the backbone of society and support human wellbeing (Thacker, et al., 2019). Given society's strong dependence on infrastructure systems, disruptions impose a heavy economic burden globally, with floods accounting for $1,092 billion in losses since 1980 (Munich Re, 2019). Ensuring infrastructure systems are resilient to shocks is becoming an increasingly urgent task in the context of growing populations and heightened likelihoods of extreme weather due to climate change (Winsemius, et al., 2016; Forzieri, et al., 2018; Hall, et al., 2019). However, existing large-scale studies that focus on infrastructure damages caused by flooding (Hirabayashi, 2013; Winsemius, et al., 2013; Koks, et al., 2019b) are severely limited by two implicit assumptions: 1) that flood events occur independently from each other across space; and 2) that consequences of one asset failing is isolated to that single asset, without accounting for network effects1. This has major implications for our understanding of what the worst-case hazard scenarios are for infrastructure systems; for example, simultaneous floods may induce widespread losses that overwhelm insurance claims (Jongman, et al., 2014). In order to systematically identify vulnerable assets and target adaptation funds, infrastructure systemsshould be stress-tested2 against a large ensemble of realistic synchronous flood events.