Real-time monitoring and forecasting of coastal erosion

海岸侵蚀实时监测与预报

• 批准号: 2446628
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Glasgow
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2020 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2446628
• 关键词: Real; time; monitoring; forecasting; coastal

Coastal erosion threatens nearshore infrastructure, individual properties, and people's livelihoods. Risks associated with coastal erosion are expected to increase in severity in the coming decades due to anticipated sea level rise, and the increased intensity and frequency of storm events (UKCP18). Despite these risks, coastal regions remain a focus for development and thus there is need for an evidence base to establish which assets within which coastlines are most vulnerable to erosion for strategic planning purposes. Our ability to make reliable predictions of future coastal change is dependent on a solid theoretical understanding of coastal processes coupled with records of past coastal change under known forcing conditions. Future coastal erosion around the coast of Scotland has focused at the national scale by extrapolation of historical recession rates. However, historical observations of shoreline changes are temporally sparse. Prediction of future coastal erosion requires the use of process-based numerical models that are calibrated and validated by observational data. This project aims to couple real time monitoring and modelling to develop a continuous early warning system for storm-induced coastal erosion events in response to extreme environmental conditions.

海岸侵蚀威胁着近岸基础设施、个人财产和人民生计。由于预期海平面上升以及风暴事件强度和频率的增加，预计未来几十年与海岸侵蚀相关的风险将更加严重（UKCP18）。尽管存在这些风险，沿海地区仍然是发展的重点，因此需要证据基础来确定海岸线内的哪些资产最容易受到侵蚀，以用于战略规划目的。我们对未来海岸变化做出可靠预测的能力取决于对海岸过程的扎实理论理解以及已知强迫条件下过去海岸变化的记录。通过历史衰退率的推断，苏格兰海岸未来的海岸侵蚀将集中在全国范围内。然而，对海岸线变化的历史观察暂时很少。预测未来海岸侵蚀需要使用基于过程的数值模型，并通过观测数据进行校准和验证。该项目旨在将实时监测和建模结合起来，开发针对风暴引起的海岸侵蚀事件的连续预警系统，以应对极端环境条件。