Development of risk-based investment decision making tools that account for predictive model uncertainty in Water Framework Directive studies

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The project would involve the PhD student first modelling a baseline solution in a case study, and then develop solutions based on different levels of uncertainty, so instead of a single proposed solution, there would be different solutions with different levels of risk of failure proposed. Part of this task will also involve the development of appropriate statistically based tools to quantify uncertainty in the sub-models simulating different catchment process. These individual process uncertainties then need to be aggregated to understand in the uncertainty in key hydraulic and water quality parameters used in WFD assessments. The student would then interview decision makers regarding to how they would react to model uncertainty and different levels of risk of failure when making investment decisions. This phase of the work would be used to investigate the role of personal risk adverseness in terms of investment decision making. A framework would be developed to incorporate model uncertainty into an objective investment decision making strategy.This framework would be applied to a range of different catchments to evidence the potential cost variation of investment decisions for WFD compliant solutions. In collaboration with a number of water companies the PhD student would then develop guidance documents on including uncertainty quantification as part of an accepted WFD study workflow, as well as on different decision making strategies.